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http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-doubt-2/
Yesterday was the confluence of hope and month-end driving equities to new highs, propping up expectations for an even larger December rally. Today is the mixture of regret and doubt as the UK has doubts about its Irish/EU border deal, the US tax reform delay spooks equities, with the economic data mixed as China sees its Caixin PMI conflict with the official report, as Japan sees its CPI in line, unemployment unchanged and spending lower but not worse than expected. Capex bounced but not enough to make up for production woes. The PMI reports in Europe were mixed as well with Europe overall better led by Germany, Austria and Netherlands. The UK didn’t get much relief from the better PMI report with focus still on politics. The day ahead in the US brings more Canada data than US and that might be the story as the USD is flat after bumpy overnight and the rest of the world is in “me-too†mode with blame for lower outlooks today wrapped around the mean reversion of moo
ds after yesterday. Doubt is a dark shadow that only brighter data can erase. Traders will be watching the failure of USD/JPY 112.72 – 55-day, US 10Y yields at 2.41% and GBP at 1.3550 to see if we are in for more trouble. Topping out in those markets suggests larger corrections elsewhere. Until 11 am and the Senate vote on tax reform, little may really matter.
The Morning Track doubt-2
- The Morning Track - Doubt by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-doubt-2/
Yesterday was the confluence of hope and month-end driving equities to new highs, propping up expectations for an even larger December rally. Today is the mixture of regret and doubt as the UK has doubts about its Irish/EU border deal, the US tax reform delay spooks equities, with the economic data mixed as China sees its Caixin PMI conflict with the official report, as Japan sees its CPI in line, unemployment unchanged and spending lower but not worse than expected. Capex bounced but not enough to make up for production woes. The PMI reports in Europe were mixed as well with Europe overall better led by Germany, Austria and Netherlands. The UK didn’t get much relief from the better PMI report with focus still on politics. The day ahead in the US brings more Canada data than US and that might be the story as the USD is flat after bumpy overnight and the rest of the world is in “me-too†mode with blame for lower outlooks today wrapped around the mean reversion of moo
ds after yesterday. Doubt is a dark shadow that only brighter data can erase. Traders will be watching the failure of USD/JPY 112.72 – 55-day, US 10Y yields at 2.41% and GBP at 1.3550 to see if we are in for more trouble. Topping out in those markets suggests larger corrections elsewhere. Until 11 am and the Senate vote on tax reform, little may really matter.
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Robert Savage
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