EUR 8.84 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track duke-of-york

- The Morning Track – Duke of York by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-duke-of-york/

Markets have been marching up and down the hills of recent price ranges like the Grand Old Duke of York Song –“when you are up you are up, when you are down you are down.” This mood swinging action has been assigned to Jackson Hole for both bulls and bears but underneath it all remains the larger doubts about US politics. News headlines are recycled with Trump’s threat of a government shutdown and Dallas Fed Kaplan urging patience for the next rate hike. Blaming the US is in vogue. But geopolitical worries are everywhere - the latest twists and examples: 1) German opposition SPD candidate Schultz demands the US withdraw its nuclear weapons from Germany – trying to capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment. 2) A US band Allah-Las canceled its show in Rotterdam after tips from Spain led to a Spanish Van with gas canisters being found. 3) The UK Home Office sent 100 EU nationals deportation letters by mistake. This won’t help talks nor the migration problem for UK. Tha
nkfully, there was less focus on North Korea and less about Trump and his threats for government shutdowns and NAFTA unwinds. Rather the overnight session appeared to be more about the wait for Jackson Hole and central bankers guidance about future policy. This is the story of the week but one that seems a bit more hype than hope. There isn’t much interest from central bankers in upsetting the markets and there is little for bears in markets given the economic data of late. The market risk appetite appears to be stuck in the middle like much of the technical indicators – marching up and down – leaving a clear breakout less obvious. My focus is on the Gold market as it fails to reclaim momentum with a clean break over $1300 and that opens just more doubt. The copper/gold ratio that Gundlach of Double-line advocates as a warning for bonds also is in play but that is another story and likely one for Jackson Hole. Until then we are all looking at safe-havens – gol
d, bonds, JPY and wondering if its safe to march up the hill.