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http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-early-birds-3/
Up early today, flew to London, and watching the birds outside with wings battling cold, icy and wet like the market mood. Early doesn’t mean happy. I started working as a child on the farm and the dairy was moving at 4.30 am. I vowed as a child not to become a farmer in part because of that early rising but as we mellow with age, I get up early and write. Perhaps I should become a farmer too. Either way, the markets for early risers aren’t happy. Bonds and stocks are in sync and both are lower. There is plenty to blame for this – starting with fears about the FOMC meeting, continuing to US Trade Tariff risks, moving over to Abe and his political risks – he is sinking in the polls. Four media polls released Monday showed Cabinet approval ratings falling to the 30 percent range, the lowest since Abe took office in 2012. The embattled PM reiterated that any involvement in land sale scandal would merit resignation from parliament and it’s clear from the origin
al documents he was not involved. The economic data was mixed as Japan trade showed China and Asia weakness blamed on New Year Holidays against EU and US demand. The BOJ summary of the March meeting states the obvious – there is a negative feedback loop for inflatiion from stronger JPY and weaker shares – but that doesn’t mean they are ready to do more. China house prices rose but most of the big markets were still softer. China’s new PBOC Yi was approved and vowed further financial reforms. Most see his first test coming with FOMC rate hike this week. Russia’s Putin won 77% of the vote – as most expected – with some motivated to polls after UK spy story. As for the UK, focus is firmly on Brexit then BOE later this week. Given the lack of bigger stories – the risk barometer of choice reverts to the JPY again. This isn’t the place to catch the worm – it’s in a grinding lower trend with 105.20 key support holding for now. Perhaps it better to plant s
eeds elsewhere – like th EUR or GBP where markets maybe offsides into the heavier news flow ahead.
The Morning Track early-birds-3
- The Morning Track - Early Birds by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-early-birds-3/
Up early today, flew to London, and watching the birds outside with wings battling cold, icy and wet like the market mood. Early doesn’t mean happy. I started working as a child on the farm and the dairy was moving at 4.30 am. I vowed as a child not to become a farmer in part because of that early rising but as we mellow with age, I get up early and write. Perhaps I should become a farmer too. Either way, the markets for early risers aren’t happy. Bonds and stocks are in sync and both are lower. There is plenty to blame for this – starting with fears about the FOMC meeting, continuing to US Trade Tariff risks, moving over to Abe and his political risks – he is sinking in the polls. Four media polls released Monday showed Cabinet approval ratings falling to the 30 percent range, the lowest since Abe took office in 2012. The embattled PM reiterated that any involvement in land sale scandal would merit resignation from parliament and it’s clear from the origin
al documents he was not involved. The economic data was mixed as Japan trade showed China and Asia weakness blamed on New Year Holidays against EU and US demand. The BOJ summary of the March meeting states the obvious – there is a negative feedback loop for inflatiion from stronger JPY and weaker shares – but that doesn’t mean they are ready to do more. China house prices rose but most of the big markets were still softer. China’s new PBOC Yi was approved and vowed further financial reforms. Most see his first test coming with FOMC rate hike this week. Russia’s Putin won 77% of the vote – as most expected – with some motivated to polls after UK spy story. As for the UK, focus is firmly on Brexit then BOE later this week. Given the lack of bigger stories – the risk barometer of choice reverts to the JPY again. This isn’t the place to catch the worm – it’s in a grinding lower trend with 105.20 key support holding for now. Perhaps it better to plant s
eeds elsewhere – like th EUR or GBP where markets maybe offsides into the heavier news flow ahead.
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Robert Savage
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