EUR 8.70 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track eow

- The Morning Track - EOW by Bob Savage
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-eow/

This is the end of my vacation – 8 days in Argentina – with plenty of hot weather, there is a drought on going, plenty of strikes, yesterday was Truckers, and plenty of time to reconsider what is important in markets.. So, today’s Morning Track is a bit fuller than usual, with a quick attempt to recap the weekly news abroad. Overnight was light on the news front, bit like the entire week, with China Anbang insurance government take-over a stand out, while slightly higher Japan CPI was ignored. The EU data was a non-event but the Italy debt market was spooked into their BTPei auction and this hit the entire periphery. The focus for the rest of the day is on Fed speakers – though it’s doubtful that you get much more than 3-4 hike talk from the lot. In FX you have to watch the SEK/NOK for fun today with the breakout of EUR/SEK post the Riksbank minutes and example of how important central bank policy remains. Markets are ending the week with a risk-on mood but one
that seems shy and unable to ask for the needed break out to new highs. Month-end flows are expected to matter moree and there is a sinking sense that the risk barometers of the past aren’t working like they used to – blame the Fed and ECB for that as they try to normalize in glacial fashion. Today the chart to watch is EUR/JPY with the breaking down of the USD bid in JPY despite a strong Nikkei pushing out the search for better risk metrics and correlations. EUR/JPY maybe something to watch should European growth and political hopes get dashed further over the weekend.