EUR 9.24 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track epiphany-2

- The Morning Track – Epiphany by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-epiphany-2/

This is the 12th day of the Christmas Holiday season, it marks the end of the festival and the start of real business for 2017. The up and down moves in rates and the USD maybe seen in that context and it puts the US unemployment report today into a special light – perhaps undeserved given that the noise from the statistics may overwhelm the facts of the underlying economy. Nevertheless, that maybe enough for the market to have a less religious epiphany, that trends can hold and corrections are opportunities to buy low and sell high. As usual the list of data overnight became less exciting that politics and policy – China fixed the CNY stronger by 0.9% but let the currency drop as CNH rate squeeze eased as well. SAFE and PBOC latter said they will crack down on illegal FX activity and prevent risks from cross-border capital flows. Stocks in China fell for the first time in 5 days. The China Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng all but confirmed an FT article su
ggesting some Korean firms were losing business because of the installation in South Korea of a US missile defense shield. All of which seemed to matter to bond markets and so the USD overnight which slides into Friday with a bid and some expectation that non-farm payrolls at 175,000 and unemployment at 4.7% would be enough to hold the uptrend from 2016. Focus is on the USD as it seems to lead rather than follow with focus on US dollar index support at 100.78 the 55-day moving average. Given that the news today maybe enough to keep bulls happy – many see the buy-the-dip thinking winning the day and US equities may take over from there.