EUR 9.38 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track falling-behind

- The Morning Track – Falling Behind by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-falling-behind/

European clocks fell behind and perhaps that is the metaphor for the day as the EUR slips back from 1.10 again and markets seem worried that GDP and CPI in Europe aren’t sufficient for any ECB tapering talk to stand. The political news in the US dominated the weekend but the stories elsewhere highlight that politics trump economics. Even though we did see weaker Japan IP and retail sales, weaker German retail sales, weaker Eurozone CPI – focus was elsewhere.
• Spain’s Rajoy wins confidence vote 170 to 111 – sworn in as PM
• UK Papers debate BOE Carney staying with FT saying ready for full 8-year term, others see him resigning this week.
• Iceland Independence Party wins 21 seats, Progressive 29 seats – falling short of majority in 63-seat parliament. Pirates and 3 other left parties coalition have 27 seats.
• Korean President Park faces allegations that friend influenced state affairs – some of her party call for her to resign.
The point of the day is about month-end and whether this is all a trick or a treat for investors. Markets have seen less than feared in October, which has a history of delivering disasters. For that many are thankful, but for others, fear remains one of catching up to benchmarks and finding returns in a negative real yield world. The EUR/USD maybe the bellwether for whether the economics matter more than the politics – with 1.0950 looking important at the US close.