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EUR 9.28
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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-fickle-2/
The markets are fickle. The love-affair with UK PM May has turned overnight as the latest set of headlines on the UK election warn that the Conservatives could lose 20 seats and Labour gain 30 seats leading to a hung parliament. This is a surprise compared to the 100 seat majority talk that led GBP to break 1.30 and gave May the courage to talk about a better Brexit negotiation. All of which changes now and so it goes with the political turns fickle like those that ride bulls or chase bears in markets. The news overnight also matters in making the mood less stable as the better US consumer spending yesterday is dashed on the rocks of lower EU inflation and lower UK credit – booms to busts in mood managed to ignore the robust Chinese NBS PMI and the stronger New Zealand confidence along with Japan Industrial Production back at 2008 levels. All that isn’t sufficient – Oil leads the way in Europe dropping fast into the US API report tonight and the EIA tomorrow as d
oubts about demand and OPEC rise. Nothing is as fickle as volatility with the ranges in most markets tight and the uncertainty high making it the usual month-end of frozen dreams with many talking about a June Swoon – one that seems to have already started in the UK. GBP/USD is the driver so far but that might shift to JPY if equities get nervous and logically, the real story maybe in the sharp reversal in CNH as growth doubts about 2Q China prove even more fickle than UK pollsters.
The Morning Track fickle-2
- The Morning Track – Fickle by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-fickle-2/
The markets are fickle. The love-affair with UK PM May has turned overnight as the latest set of headlines on the UK election warn that the Conservatives could lose 20 seats and Labour gain 30 seats leading to a hung parliament. This is a surprise compared to the 100 seat majority talk that led GBP to break 1.30 and gave May the courage to talk about a better Brexit negotiation. All of which changes now and so it goes with the political turns fickle like those that ride bulls or chase bears in markets. The news overnight also matters in making the mood less stable as the better US consumer spending yesterday is dashed on the rocks of lower EU inflation and lower UK credit – booms to busts in mood managed to ignore the robust Chinese NBS PMI and the stronger New Zealand confidence along with Japan Industrial Production back at 2008 levels. All that isn’t sufficient – Oil leads the way in Europe dropping fast into the US API report tonight and the EIA tomorrow as d
oubts about demand and OPEC rise. Nothing is as fickle as volatility with the ranges in most markets tight and the uncertainty high making it the usual month-end of frozen dreams with many talking about a June Swoon – one that seems to have already started in the UK. GBP/USD is the driver so far but that might shift to JPY if equities get nervous and logically, the real story maybe in the sharp reversal in CNH as growth doubts about 2Q China prove even more fickle than UK pollsters.
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Robert Savage
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