EUR 9.38 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track for-better-and-worse

- The Morning Track – For Better and Worse by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-for-better-and-worse/

Better economics = worse bonds. This drives the market today after a week of uneasy calm. The tension for policy to normalize returns but today brought no action from the Swedish Riksbank nor the Norges bank – one is dovish and the other slightly hawkish and the FX levels tell the difference. The economic news dominated with the UK GDP surprising to the upside but 44% of the report is estimated by the NBS and so many wisely wait for harder facts to trade. The CBI retail sales were also stronger and the bounce back indeed suggests weather matters to the consumer. The overnight started with Deutsche Bank earnings showing a profit rather than a loss, followed with Kuroda noting any attempts to weaken USD/JPY from policy is intervention and not his role but the government’s decision. The Belgium’s blink and an EU-Canada trade deal is back on – setting up hopes for a better Brexit deal in the UK. The China 4-day 6th plenary session of the 18th Central Committee of the
CPC ended today with promises of enhanced anti-corruption, more risk-prevention and stronger leadership. None of this really drives markets like the old-fashioned rate moves that have returned today making us all watch for 1.90% in 10Y US and wonder if that is the level where equities and the USD matter to the FOMC reaction function on financial stability.