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EUR 9.06
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-full-circle-3/
The concerns about US policy both immigration and trade drove down the USD and equities in Asia. This was a media frenzy over the 7-nation immigration restrictions and led to some clarifications from the Trump Administration. Markets don’t like protests and they don’t like uncertainty. The selling off of equities in Europe extends on politics and on banks with the ECB back in focus with credit quality of Italian Banks today’s fear factor. We saw a full circle move in the USD and the support for the dollar at the right technical levels. This means the risk for a higher USD and higher US rates into the FOMC meeting mid-week shouldn’t be ignored. Selling off risk on Friday and buying it back on Monday maybe the new Trump trading pattern as one analysts from Bloomberg suggested this morning. But perhaps its more complicated now with the forces of divergence at play more clearly. The BOJ meeting tomorrow, the FOMC Wednesday and the BOE Thursday all have unique pr
oblems and the unified policy of fighting deflation seems long ago and far away. We maybe back to trading RORO – risk-on and risk-off with the FX market obsessed by carry trading again and the AUD/JPY more important a barometer for equities and bonds than it has been in the past 5 years. That doesn’t mean that the BOJ can’t change this tomorrow – merely that its what is moving things today. Throw in the uncertainty of US policy and the outright war with the media and you have a market place set up for more volatility and more full circle moves in the short-term. The risk on the day maybe in JPY breaking back to 115.60 and US shares recovering.
The Morning Track full-circle-3
- The Morning Track – Full Circle by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-full-circle-3/
The concerns about US policy both immigration and trade drove down the USD and equities in Asia. This was a media frenzy over the 7-nation immigration restrictions and led to some clarifications from the Trump Administration. Markets don’t like protests and they don’t like uncertainty. The selling off of equities in Europe extends on politics and on banks with the ECB back in focus with credit quality of Italian Banks today’s fear factor. We saw a full circle move in the USD and the support for the dollar at the right technical levels. This means the risk for a higher USD and higher US rates into the FOMC meeting mid-week shouldn’t be ignored. Selling off risk on Friday and buying it back on Monday maybe the new Trump trading pattern as one analysts from Bloomberg suggested this morning. But perhaps its more complicated now with the forces of divergence at play more clearly. The BOJ meeting tomorrow, the FOMC Wednesday and the BOE Thursday all have unique pr
oblems and the unified policy of fighting deflation seems long ago and far away. We maybe back to trading RORO – risk-on and risk-off with the FX market obsessed by carry trading again and the AUD/JPY more important a barometer for equities and bonds than it has been in the past 5 years. That doesn’t mean that the BOJ can’t change this tomorrow – merely that its what is moving things today. Throw in the uncertainty of US policy and the outright war with the media and you have a market place set up for more volatility and more full circle moves in the short-term. The risk on the day maybe in JPY breaking back to 115.60 and US shares recovering.
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Robert Savage
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