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EUR 8.50
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-getting-better-5/
There are some stories hard to ignore – and today makes that painfully clear - with the shootings in Las Vegas with 50 dead and over a 200 hurt reminding us all of the fragility of life. France suffers with two women stabbed in Marseille Train station blamed on terrorists and Spain also proves the point showing that politics matter with over 760 people injured. While Spain grew in September according to its Manufacturing PMI, the chaos of the weekend violence surrounding the referendum drives Spanish bonds lower, hurts the EUR and leaves many wondering about democracy. With a low 42% turnout, 90% of the voters were in favor of independence making it very likely that Catalan President Puigdemont will declare unilateral independence – even though EU and other international bodies don’t recognize the vote. Embattled PM Rajoy is being called out by the European Commission to respect the rights of all citizens and to move from confrontation to dialogue. The issue for Spa
in matters also for its speedy resolution as Belgium and Italy have similar regions pushing for independence. Not all the news was so difficult – the BOJ Tankan is at decade highs, China PMI over the weekend printed 5-year highs, the European Manufacturing PMI shows job creation at record highs (best in over 25 years of history). Markets have to digest the good and the bad and decide if things are getting better or worse for the 4Q. Momentum trades are dominating but risks remain political with UK PM May running into the Conservative Party Conference with opposition, with Japan PM Abe snap election later this month an unknown despite oppositional disarray. Of course, the US politics also matter with tax reform hopes a driver along with Trump’s FOMC appointments. As for the week ahead, the pace of news won’t slow down with US jobs Friday seen as key for looking through the hurricane effects and setting up for a Fed December rate hike. In this environment, mood is ev
erything and how we answer that simple question of getting better drives most markets. For FX with the EUR embattled in a 1.1450-1.1850 consolidation, clearer signals are with the JPY watching 114.50 for confirmation that 4Q will be the return of the USD up trend while you need to crack 112 to provide the bears food for the winter.
The Morning Track getting-better-5
- The Morning Track – Getting Better? by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-getting-better-5/
There are some stories hard to ignore – and today makes that painfully clear - with the shootings in Las Vegas with 50 dead and over a 200 hurt reminding us all of the fragility of life. France suffers with two women stabbed in Marseille Train station blamed on terrorists and Spain also proves the point showing that politics matter with over 760 people injured. While Spain grew in September according to its Manufacturing PMI, the chaos of the weekend violence surrounding the referendum drives Spanish bonds lower, hurts the EUR and leaves many wondering about democracy. With a low 42% turnout, 90% of the voters were in favor of independence making it very likely that Catalan President Puigdemont will declare unilateral independence – even though EU and other international bodies don’t recognize the vote. Embattled PM Rajoy is being called out by the European Commission to respect the rights of all citizens and to move from confrontation to dialogue. The issue for Spa
in matters also for its speedy resolution as Belgium and Italy have similar regions pushing for independence. Not all the news was so difficult – the BOJ Tankan is at decade highs, China PMI over the weekend printed 5-year highs, the European Manufacturing PMI shows job creation at record highs (best in over 25 years of history). Markets have to digest the good and the bad and decide if things are getting better or worse for the 4Q. Momentum trades are dominating but risks remain political with UK PM May running into the Conservative Party Conference with opposition, with Japan PM Abe snap election later this month an unknown despite oppositional disarray. Of course, the US politics also matter with tax reform hopes a driver along with Trump’s FOMC appointments. As for the week ahead, the pace of news won’t slow down with US jobs Friday seen as key for looking through the hurricane effects and setting up for a Fed December rate hike. In this environment, mood is ev
erything and how we answer that simple question of getting better drives most markets. For FX with the EUR embattled in a 1.1450-1.1850 consolidation, clearer signals are with the JPY watching 114.50 for confirmation that 4Q will be the return of the USD up trend while you need to crack 112 to provide the bears food for the winter.
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Robert Savage
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