Report
EUR 8.70
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-give-ups/
Important note – Track won’t have a morning report tomorrow or Monday – given US holiday.
Valentine’s Day and Ash Wednesday, a combination that brings chocolate and resolutions to give up something for Lent. We, of course, could mix the two and give up both – and that maybe the course for the day – giving up on expecting anything big happening. Markets are limping through a consolidation stage after the volatility of last week. For most in the markets, the risk-on mood hobbles into another day along with USD weakness – particularly in the JPY. As for the JPY – the risk-on and off story has shifted to EUR/JPY more than USD/JPY with an eye to the New Year holidays forcing a larger washout of order books. Two central bank meetings had no change – Bank of Thailand on hold as expected, Sweden Riksbank on hold as expected – but there were fireworks around the deputy dissent with EUR/SEK rallying to 55-day support briefly. The GDP reports from Europe, Germany, Italy - were in line but Japan missed and adds to views there of ongoing QQE. The first of man
y key Brexit speeches hits today with Boris Johnson vowing no EU laws in the UK post 2019. Talk of the VP jobs at the ECB and FOMC grabbed headlines with Spain’s De Guindos a favorite for the ECB and Cleveland Fed Mester a front runner for the Vice-Chair of the FOMC. Both are seen as supporting status quo of gradulalism for shifting rates – all of which translates into the present status quo story that equities are a buy-the-dip but with more volatility and less returns for 2018. The trends down in the USD are seen as reflecting US deficits, inflation risks and trade policy doubts. Today’s focus is about CPI – with many seeing 3% y/y as the turning point for FOMC doubts about gradual hikes – read by traders as pricing in 2-3 vs. 4 or more. The speed of change for rates sets the tone still for the speed of change in equities and the USD. The fact that Asia sold USD and Europe bought it back ahead of the data today matters – as we now have a range to watch for
momentum breakouts or breakdowns.
The Morning Track give-ups
- The Morning Track – Give Ups by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-give-ups/
Important note – Track won’t have a morning report tomorrow or Monday – given US holiday.
Valentine’s Day and Ash Wednesday, a combination that brings chocolate and resolutions to give up something for Lent. We, of course, could mix the two and give up both – and that maybe the course for the day – giving up on expecting anything big happening. Markets are limping through a consolidation stage after the volatility of last week. For most in the markets, the risk-on mood hobbles into another day along with USD weakness – particularly in the JPY. As for the JPY – the risk-on and off story has shifted to EUR/JPY more than USD/JPY with an eye to the New Year holidays forcing a larger washout of order books. Two central bank meetings had no change – Bank of Thailand on hold as expected, Sweden Riksbank on hold as expected – but there were fireworks around the deputy dissent with EUR/SEK rallying to 55-day support briefly. The GDP reports from Europe, Germany, Italy - were in line but Japan missed and adds to views there of ongoing QQE. The first of man
y key Brexit speeches hits today with Boris Johnson vowing no EU laws in the UK post 2019. Talk of the VP jobs at the ECB and FOMC grabbed headlines with Spain’s De Guindos a favorite for the ECB and Cleveland Fed Mester a front runner for the Vice-Chair of the FOMC. Both are seen as supporting status quo of gradulalism for shifting rates – all of which translates into the present status quo story that equities are a buy-the-dip but with more volatility and less returns for 2018. The trends down in the USD are seen as reflecting US deficits, inflation risks and trade policy doubts. Today’s focus is about CPI – with many seeing 3% y/y as the turning point for FOMC doubts about gradual hikes – read by traders as pricing in 2-3 vs. 4 or more. The speed of change for rates sets the tone still for the speed of change in equities and the USD. The fact that Asia sold USD and Europe bought it back ahead of the data today matters – as we now have a range to watch for
momentum breakouts or breakdowns.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.