Report
EUR 8.70
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-great-expectations-3/
The events today are the key for the week – likely beating the mighty US jobs report – for driving market direction. There are great expectations for a dovish BOE hike, a 25-bps and done move, but the devil will be in the vote and minutes as the debate about future hikes matters much more. Then there is US President Trump with his 11.15 am press conference to pick the next FOMC Chair – expected to be Powell – and to announce the tax reform bill. While Powell is seen as the more dovish choice, continuity at the FOMC is likely a good thing for risk assets and this story has been leaked for weeks. Powell’s mid-day speech maybe another event risk to watch as he suddenly becomes as important as Yellen on policy outlooks. The tax reform will be central to setting up US bonds which have run out of steam and watch 2.47% 10Y yields for further moves. The FOMC meeting yesterday didn’t matter – as most expected – they are still watching modest inflation and expect t
o hike in December as the economy grows faster than potential. Overnight, there was some less than great expectations for North Korea which continues apace for nuclearized ICBMs getting the US Senate to agree to even more stringent sanctions just ahead of the Trump Asia visit. The economic data last night focused on Australian trade surplus beating thanks to China iron ore demand and on the mixed PMI reports from Europe with Spain surprising, while France disappointed. Growth in Europe is still on track for a great 2017 but the real driver for ECB action isn’t growth but the EUR and Oil. As for GBP, the markets are prepared for today but only if the BOE is not hawkish. UK politics remain ugly – as UK PM May now gets to replace her defense secretary, while sex sells papers, it hurts both parties in London now. The USD wobbles today are similar to those of the UK and maybe more about politics than economics, but beneath both policy drives and that puts the GBP as the ke
y risk barometer for today. Pay attention to 1.3350 break outs for that is the vulnerable leg – just as 2.42% is in US 10Y rates.
The Morning Track great-expectations-3
- The Morning Track - Great Expectations by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-great-expectations-3/
The events today are the key for the week – likely beating the mighty US jobs report – for driving market direction. There are great expectations for a dovish BOE hike, a 25-bps and done move, but the devil will be in the vote and minutes as the debate about future hikes matters much more. Then there is US President Trump with his 11.15 am press conference to pick the next FOMC Chair – expected to be Powell – and to announce the tax reform bill. While Powell is seen as the more dovish choice, continuity at the FOMC is likely a good thing for risk assets and this story has been leaked for weeks. Powell’s mid-day speech maybe another event risk to watch as he suddenly becomes as important as Yellen on policy outlooks. The tax reform will be central to setting up US bonds which have run out of steam and watch 2.47% 10Y yields for further moves. The FOMC meeting yesterday didn’t matter – as most expected – they are still watching modest inflation and expect t
o hike in December as the economy grows faster than potential. Overnight, there was some less than great expectations for North Korea which continues apace for nuclearized ICBMs getting the US Senate to agree to even more stringent sanctions just ahead of the Trump Asia visit. The economic data last night focused on Australian trade surplus beating thanks to China iron ore demand and on the mixed PMI reports from Europe with Spain surprising, while France disappointed. Growth in Europe is still on track for a great 2017 but the real driver for ECB action isn’t growth but the EUR and Oil. As for GBP, the markets are prepared for today but only if the BOE is not hawkish. UK politics remain ugly – as UK PM May now gets to replace her defense secretary, while sex sells papers, it hurts both parties in London now. The USD wobbles today are similar to those of the UK and maybe more about politics than economics, but beneath both policy drives and that puts the GBP as the ke
y risk barometer for today. Pay attention to 1.3350 break outs for that is the vulnerable leg – just as 2.42% is in US 10Y rates.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.