Report
FREE
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-growing-risks/
Apologies for the late delivery again, I am in Geneva at a conference. The weather here is sunny with chance of showers. That is a bit like the warnings of the RBA last night. There are growing risks to markets everywhere and they rise regardless. This doesn’t mean we don’t have a wall of worry anymore nor that geopolitics don’t matter, but only that the immediate concerns are for putting money to work as the threats from Italy or US trade policy are yet to be fully defined and can be offset by central bankers. The data dump overnight was about PMI Services and that lifted the UK growth view in 2Q higher driving up the GBP and down the FTSE. The rate path for the BOE is static. The growth path for the US is the main story and driver and if you look only at bonds today, they suggest some slowing but the ISM Service may tell another story so be on the lookout for storm clouds returning about higher US rates. The goal of trading markets is to time for wise investment
and that is hard to do when you don’t really know what the risk-free rate is or should be. 3% is still a round number to fear for most models. Going into the US trading day, expect that rate focus to be key with 2.86-3.00% the levels to respect.
The Morning Track growing-risks
- The Morning Track – Growing Risks by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-growing-risks/
Apologies for the late delivery again, I am in Geneva at a conference. The weather here is sunny with chance of showers. That is a bit like the warnings of the RBA last night. There are growing risks to markets everywhere and they rise regardless. This doesn’t mean we don’t have a wall of worry anymore nor that geopolitics don’t matter, but only that the immediate concerns are for putting money to work as the threats from Italy or US trade policy are yet to be fully defined and can be offset by central bankers. The data dump overnight was about PMI Services and that lifted the UK growth view in 2Q higher driving up the GBP and down the FTSE. The rate path for the BOE is static. The growth path for the US is the main story and driver and if you look only at bonds today, they suggest some slowing but the ISM Service may tell another story so be on the lookout for storm clouds returning about higher US rates. The goal of trading markets is to time for wise investment
and that is hard to do when you don’t really know what the risk-free rate is or should be. 3% is still a round number to fear for most models. Going into the US trading day, expect that rate focus to be key with 2.86-3.00% the levels to respect.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.