EUR 9.28 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track into-the-storm

- The Morning Track – Into the Storm by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-into-the-storm/

Sometimes nature reflects the anxiety of the mind. The tempest of the week ahead revolves around the FOMC, BOE, BOJ, the Dutch elections, the US debt ceiling, Trump Budget, the UK Brexit article 50 call, G20 FinMin meetings and a winter blizzard called Stella. There is no calm in Europe ahead of these events. Over the weekend the Belgian ECB Smets noted that the ECB doesn’t have a hawkish bias – despite the Friday newswires to the contrary. EUR responded accordingly. UK Davis noted that Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March and UK Gilts responds accordingly. The Dutch-Turkish diplomatic crisis gets worse and the TRY responds accordingly. All of these events are man-made and political more than economic and show that markets remain stormy flipping from bid in Asia to offered in Europe. Oil follows equities and the reflation trade is put into question with $50 the pivot. In terms of other stories that matter – WSJ reports on UK pre-releases leadin
g to trading ahead of official economic data releases – something that adds to the ugly underbelly of financial distrust and the view of insiders winning at the public’s expense. The GBP isn’t effected by any of it today as the reversal of the EUR mattered more overnight. Its important to watch what moves when you are facing a storm and to get ahead of it you need to pay attention to such moves – leaving EUR as the key barometer on the day with little US data.