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EUR 8.14
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http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-moderation-2/
Eating and drinking less doesn’t mean you lose weight – its what you consumer that matters. In the same way, lower price volatility across asset classes doesn’t remove the tail risks from uncertainty. Moderation in market movement today maybe a sign of less conviction than less trouble. There is a clear bias from the analyst community to call a bottom in fear and equities and ditch all safe-havens – from JPY to bonds to gold – but this isn’t yet playing out fully. FX maybe leading with JPY and CHF but Gold and Bonds aren’t yet following. The Chinese cut of its bank reserve requirement by 1% for the top 6 banks to 16% - a subtle easing - mixed with the Washington Post scoop about CIA director Pompeo meeting North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un over Easter weekend to drive risk-on for markets overnight. The fear of US trade policy leading to a trade war also eased as China opened up its auto industry, lifting ownership rules, though Japan Abe maybe less happy with Tru
mp again backing away from TPP. The second day of talks in Key-Largo today matter for both the US and Japan. The EU is fighting its own trade issues with Brexit back in the news as they ask seek emergency powers. The moderation moments today will rest on the BOC and the Trump/Abe new conference. There are plenty of things to worry about but the momentum speaks for itself. USD is up, US stocks are up and oil is up. Global growth maybe wobbly but intact – and that makes the JPY the bull favorite today for a shift from moderation to breaking higher.
The Morning Track moderation-2
- The Morning Track – Moderation by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-moderation-2/
Eating and drinking less doesn’t mean you lose weight – its what you consumer that matters. In the same way, lower price volatility across asset classes doesn’t remove the tail risks from uncertainty. Moderation in market movement today maybe a sign of less conviction than less trouble. There is a clear bias from the analyst community to call a bottom in fear and equities and ditch all safe-havens – from JPY to bonds to gold – but this isn’t yet playing out fully. FX maybe leading with JPY and CHF but Gold and Bonds aren’t yet following. The Chinese cut of its bank reserve requirement by 1% for the top 6 banks to 16% - a subtle easing - mixed with the Washington Post scoop about CIA director Pompeo meeting North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un over Easter weekend to drive risk-on for markets overnight. The fear of US trade policy leading to a trade war also eased as China opened up its auto industry, lifting ownership rules, though Japan Abe maybe less happy with Tru
mp again backing away from TPP. The second day of talks in Key-Largo today matter for both the US and Japan. The EU is fighting its own trade issues with Brexit back in the news as they ask seek emergency powers. The moderation moments today will rest on the BOC and the Trump/Abe new conference. There are plenty of things to worry about but the momentum speaks for itself. USD is up, US stocks are up and oil is up. Global growth maybe wobbly but intact – and that makes the JPY the bull favorite today for a shift from moderation to breaking higher.
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Robert Savage
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