Report
Robert Savage
EUR 9.24 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track new-year-old-trends

- The Morning Track – New Year, Old Trends by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-new-year-old-trends/

The USD rallies, global rates are higher and stocks higher. We have seen this all before but the calendar is different and the data supports the mood today. Welcome to 2017 where DJIA 20K hats are back in vogue. The overnight and Monday price action has left it clear there is no room for doubters. The buy-the-dip mentality will hold for sometime and the sense of the train leaving the station regardless of whether you have a ticket makes for a rush of trading again. The key components of the mood swing from Friday to today rest on 1) Oil rallying over $55 thanks to Kuwait confirming its production cuts and suggesting others are doing the same; 2) Better China PMI reports – Caixin today was much stronger than expected; 3) Singapore GDP 4Q lifted the entire 2016 to 1.8% y/y – better than 0.3% expected; 4) European PMI reports yesterday were uniformly robust – with Italy and even Greece up; 5) UK PMI today rebounded as well leaving fears about Brexit behind. All that
leaves the markets hungering for more data to justify further buying. The US ISM today will be key accordingly. That leaves the barometer for risk and a bigger breakout to the USD with a double top at 103.65 nagging the bulls and causing some to wonder if this is a New Year with old trends.
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