Report
EUR 8.46
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-next-3/
Friday and US unemployment report, two things that usually make for a dull day as markets want to digest the data before trading and then want to go home flat for the weekend. This urge to wait and see mixes with the underwhelming response of markets to the start of the US/China trade war. The tariff baton is in Trump’s hand to retaliate to the China retaliation. A second round of tariffs on an additional $16bn will probably go into effect in August. President Trump has threatened to levy tariffs on another $200bn in Chinese goods, though they won’t be ready to put into effect until the late fall. That risk seems understood but not priced by the market. Oxford Economics forecasts that $50 billion in tit-for-tat tariffs will reduce economic growth by 0.1% in each country. Another $200 billion takes that up to 0.3% in 2019.
Most of the trading world affected by Trump tariffs have responded and the “war†hasn’t derailed risk completely so we soldier on, asking what is next? Jobs for today is the answer and the FOMC minutes were mixed as they debated the strength of the economy against the threat of trade disruption and the hit to confidence globally. For them there is a risk to waiting for clarity with bubbles and inflation in tow. There is a circular reasoning to the mechanics of the present stalemate for momentum, the urge to fight the battle of Bull Run again seems strong, perhaps that is the history lesson to read from the US Civil War where Washingtonians watched in picnics to their horror as the first big battle of the North and South led to a defeat of the Union Army and a hurried retreat. This maybe what some are hoping for with the US trade policy positions, but don’t hold your breath. All this puts the USD into a balancing act and into another down week so far. Jobs today co
uld change all this but again, don’t hold your breath. The risk for markets today seems more wrapped into positions than themes or big picture views as we scramble to buy time and wait it all out.
The Morning Track next-3
- The Morning Track – Next? by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-next-3/
Friday and US unemployment report, two things that usually make for a dull day as markets want to digest the data before trading and then want to go home flat for the weekend. This urge to wait and see mixes with the underwhelming response of markets to the start of the US/China trade war. The tariff baton is in Trump’s hand to retaliate to the China retaliation. A second round of tariffs on an additional $16bn will probably go into effect in August. President Trump has threatened to levy tariffs on another $200bn in Chinese goods, though they won’t be ready to put into effect until the late fall. That risk seems understood but not priced by the market. Oxford Economics forecasts that $50 billion in tit-for-tat tariffs will reduce economic growth by 0.1% in each country. Another $200 billion takes that up to 0.3% in 2019.
Most of the trading world affected by Trump tariffs have responded and the “war†hasn’t derailed risk completely so we soldier on, asking what is next? Jobs for today is the answer and the FOMC minutes were mixed as they debated the strength of the economy against the threat of trade disruption and the hit to confidence globally. For them there is a risk to waiting for clarity with bubbles and inflation in tow. There is a circular reasoning to the mechanics of the present stalemate for momentum, the urge to fight the battle of Bull Run again seems strong, perhaps that is the history lesson to read from the US Civil War where Washingtonians watched in picnics to their horror as the first big battle of the North and South led to a defeat of the Union Army and a hurried retreat. This maybe what some are hoping for with the US trade policy positions, but don’t hold your breath. All this puts the USD into a balancing act and into another down week so far. Jobs today co
uld change all this but again, don’t hold your breath. The risk for markets today seems more wrapped into positions than themes or big picture views as we scramble to buy time and wait it all out.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.