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EUR 8.70
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-next-round/
The risk-on mood hit a wall called month-end in Europe, preparing the US for the next round of mood roulette where technical bounces meet quarter-end reallocation. The prime example, being that many analysts note that Facebook’s bounce back yesterday was modest to the rest of the pack and its facing regulatory pressure – yet it remains 6% above its lows - and the candle chart formation screams bottom. The lack of Trump fears drives an extension for equities today – with trade in the rear view mirror, with North Korea talks far ahead and with Kim Jong Un in Beijing talking strategy – geopolitical concerns are road posts for the unexpected but the smooth ride now is all that matters. Behind the logic of risk-on, risk-off lives the US rate risk with today’s auction an important lightening rod – we all know that at some point rates matter – but its hard to tell when with the US 10-year closes with 2.8% handles for the entire month. Europe turned slightly bond posi
tive as Spanish flash CPI missed the mark and EU sentiment dives. Lots of analysis on 1Q flows hitting tapes where equities beat bonds, USD beats G7. Volatility seems to be the only constant of 1Q where the January trend reversed and two tests of the 200-day moving average S&P500 prove sufficient to spur investors to the next round – either like a boxing match or a drinking fest at a bar with neither analogy sufficient the capture the potential harm to one’s pocket. Overnight, USD/JPY gained beyond the RORO story as the former Japan tax chief Sagawa stated that neither PM Abe or his wife had a part in the Moritomo scandal. USD/CNY drops as trade talk hopes spur revaluation hopes along with new demand for Yuan from oil futures – touching highest since the Aug 2015 devalue - but holding with 6.20-6.25 key USD support still. The EUR reversed from 5-week highs with ECB doves talking today and GBP fell because it could (blame Brexit, BOE unreliability, month end noise) –
making the random punch to USD haters all the more powerful. That is the chart to watch today as mean reversion and next round thinking dominates.
The Morning Track next-round
- The Morning Track – Next Round? by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-next-round/
The risk-on mood hit a wall called month-end in Europe, preparing the US for the next round of mood roulette where technical bounces meet quarter-end reallocation. The prime example, being that many analysts note that Facebook’s bounce back yesterday was modest to the rest of the pack and its facing regulatory pressure – yet it remains 6% above its lows - and the candle chart formation screams bottom. The lack of Trump fears drives an extension for equities today – with trade in the rear view mirror, with North Korea talks far ahead and with Kim Jong Un in Beijing talking strategy – geopolitical concerns are road posts for the unexpected but the smooth ride now is all that matters. Behind the logic of risk-on, risk-off lives the US rate risk with today’s auction an important lightening rod – we all know that at some point rates matter – but its hard to tell when with the US 10-year closes with 2.8% handles for the entire month. Europe turned slightly bond posi
tive as Spanish flash CPI missed the mark and EU sentiment dives. Lots of analysis on 1Q flows hitting tapes where equities beat bonds, USD beats G7. Volatility seems to be the only constant of 1Q where the January trend reversed and two tests of the 200-day moving average S&P500 prove sufficient to spur investors to the next round – either like a boxing match or a drinking fest at a bar with neither analogy sufficient the capture the potential harm to one’s pocket. Overnight, USD/JPY gained beyond the RORO story as the former Japan tax chief Sagawa stated that neither PM Abe or his wife had a part in the Moritomo scandal. USD/CNY drops as trade talk hopes spur revaluation hopes along with new demand for Yuan from oil futures – touching highest since the Aug 2015 devalue - but holding with 6.20-6.25 key USD support still. The EUR reversed from 5-week highs with ECB doves talking today and GBP fell because it could (blame Brexit, BOE unreliability, month end noise) –
making the random punch to USD haters all the more powerful. That is the chart to watch today as mean reversion and next round thinking dominates.
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Robert Savage
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