Report
EUR 9.28
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-collusions/
Where is the safe-haven? If there was a collusion in the Trump team with Russia, then USD and US bonds aren’t the place but if there wasn’t, perhaps its not in gold or JPY either. So the EUR/USD has peaked and the USD isn’t moving lower from yesterday – does that mean efficient markets know more than Mueller? No one is quite sure what to believe in a world of alternative facts and rabid Press coverage. As Senator Hatch quipped yesterday, the evidence is thin and that still makes risk brittle. Markets reacted badly to the late US news of a special prosecutor, former FBI Mueller, to investigate the Russia meddling in the US election and any other Federal Crimes related. Trump said he looks forward to this matter concluding quickly – and many in the market would agree. The risk of the day continues to be in the talk of a lame-duck Presidency and/or impeachment risks. Impeachment in the US is a long and drawn out event that usually doesn’t lead to much more tha
n an excuse for Congress to do nothing and a President to resign– and that is being priced as the hope for fiscal stimulus fades. The rest of the world liked a bit of US weakness but not a lot and this has driven the global growth hopes back significantly leading to more commodity selling, more bond buying with 2.20% no longer a support but a waypoint to 1.95% 10Y US yields. The pain of US yield spreads narrowing was yesterday’s story and today is a bit of catch-up for the rest of the market – except notably Japan leaving USD/JPY the favorite risk monitor if not safe-haven for the moment. USD/JPY breaking from 114.40 resistance with 110.60 support gone and 108.90 the bear USD target in play – that seems just too technical and yet that is the present reality. There is no collusions for traders in a market run by confusion and a rush to the exit until some clarity on political risks emerges which could be quite sometime.
The Morning Track no-collusions
- The Morning Track - No Collusions by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-collusions/
Where is the safe-haven? If there was a collusion in the Trump team with Russia, then USD and US bonds aren’t the place but if there wasn’t, perhaps its not in gold or JPY either. So the EUR/USD has peaked and the USD isn’t moving lower from yesterday – does that mean efficient markets know more than Mueller? No one is quite sure what to believe in a world of alternative facts and rabid Press coverage. As Senator Hatch quipped yesterday, the evidence is thin and that still makes risk brittle. Markets reacted badly to the late US news of a special prosecutor, former FBI Mueller, to investigate the Russia meddling in the US election and any other Federal Crimes related. Trump said he looks forward to this matter concluding quickly – and many in the market would agree. The risk of the day continues to be in the talk of a lame-duck Presidency and/or impeachment risks. Impeachment in the US is a long and drawn out event that usually doesn’t lead to much more tha
n an excuse for Congress to do nothing and a President to resign– and that is being priced as the hope for fiscal stimulus fades. The rest of the world liked a bit of US weakness but not a lot and this has driven the global growth hopes back significantly leading to more commodity selling, more bond buying with 2.20% no longer a support but a waypoint to 1.95% 10Y US yields. The pain of US yield spreads narrowing was yesterday’s story and today is a bit of catch-up for the rest of the market – except notably Japan leaving USD/JPY the favorite risk monitor if not safe-haven for the moment. USD/JPY breaking from 114.40 resistance with 110.60 support gone and 108.90 the bear USD target in play – that seems just too technical and yet that is the present reality. There is no collusions for traders in a market run by confusion and a rush to the exit until some clarity on political risks emerges which could be quite sometime.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.