EUR 9.28 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track no-fear-2

- The Morning Track – No Fear by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-fear-2/

People can live with or in fear and sometimes do both – same as markets – and the tragedy of the UK Manchester Arena incident reminds us of such with 22 people killed and 59 injured after a man explodes an IED at an Ariana Grande closing show. President’s can also live with or in terror of investigations. The Washington Post reported that Trump asked two of the nation’s top intelligence officials in March to help him push back against an FBI investigation. Overnight there was other mixed news – Trump released his budget with $3.6trn in cuts to spending, increases in defense and building the wall – with promises to balance budget with better growth expectations. Greece and the Eurogroup failed to reach a deal and push off until June 15 next set of meetings – with primary surplus expectations and IMF issues and a July debt payment deadline. Brexit talks are unlikely to go easily as EU ministers agree on tough exit terms. UK PM May flips on the “dementia tax�
�� but the entire story still hurts her lead and casts doubt on her cabinet into Brexit talks. The heavy dose of economic data today was all better from France to Germany suggesting 2% GDP this year – something that matches the US and drives capital flows. But the UK was mixed as CBI retail orders fell and the budget news just reminded everyone of the upcoming election where campaigned was correctly suspended due to the terror attack. No one is in the mood for the balancing of fear vs. greed but that is exactly the business of trading the market today In FX, JPY as the fear barometer continues to matter even as the EUR reaches 6-month highs then stalls and GBP fails again over 1.30. The pain trade is in carry and volatility with JPY risks below 110 again but that seems to be all about equities more than rates today with the fear of headlines muted.