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EUR 8.84
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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-waiting/
The weekend appears to have started last night. The theme has been to cover and wait for Monday with oil up as OPEC compliance hits 106% and concerns about Middle East geopolitics rises. Gold is bid despite the World Gold Council saying $1300 is a top unless USD drops further. USD is wobbly with G10 mostly making gains – particularly AUD, CAD and GBP. The UK got PM May’s citizens rights plan for EU and comments from Euroleaders were positive. UK BOE Forbes sounded more hawkish – suggesting that there should be no waiting for lift-off to rates – so GBP is higher again. Flash PMI reports Japan and Europe were all lower than hoped but from high levels so mostly ignored. Perhaps the most interesting contrast was that Japan prices subcomponent was up and Europe was lower. The mood is captured by volatility and volumes – both near the weekly and yearly lows making clear that we are in summer trading mode early. The dangers for something bigger to happen over the w
eekend remain but the frustration levels to trade seems obvious. Markets are stuck with the balancing of rates being low, growth momentum slowing, stocks looking wobbly. The focus for rest of the day will be on the FOMC speakers, the housing data and the flash PMI with the risk being a return to the low end of the 10Y yields driving other markets like the USD and perhaps adding to the rotation trades in equities.
The Morning Track no-waiting
- The Morning Track – No Waiting? by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-no-waiting/
The weekend appears to have started last night. The theme has been to cover and wait for Monday with oil up as OPEC compliance hits 106% and concerns about Middle East geopolitics rises. Gold is bid despite the World Gold Council saying $1300 is a top unless USD drops further. USD is wobbly with G10 mostly making gains – particularly AUD, CAD and GBP. The UK got PM May’s citizens rights plan for EU and comments from Euroleaders were positive. UK BOE Forbes sounded more hawkish – suggesting that there should be no waiting for lift-off to rates – so GBP is higher again. Flash PMI reports Japan and Europe were all lower than hoped but from high levels so mostly ignored. Perhaps the most interesting contrast was that Japan prices subcomponent was up and Europe was lower. The mood is captured by volatility and volumes – both near the weekly and yearly lows making clear that we are in summer trading mode early. The dangers for something bigger to happen over the w
eekend remain but the frustration levels to trade seems obvious. Markets are stuck with the balancing of rates being low, growth momentum slowing, stocks looking wobbly. The focus for rest of the day will be on the FOMC speakers, the housing data and the flash PMI with the risk being a return to the low end of the 10Y yields driving other markets like the USD and perhaps adding to the rotation trades in equities.
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Robert Savage
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