EUR 8.70 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track not-even-a-mouse

- The Morning Track – Not Even a Mouse? by Bob Savage
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-not-even-a-mouse/

Is it that the Mouse ate the Fox? Fox Murdoch selling out to Disney’s Iger grabs the headlines in equities and maybe importantly highlights the obsession of the new world about delivery. The more likely story is that we are at the start of holiday trading as not even a mouse is stirring. What matters from now until the year-end? That seems to be the only question for traders and investors as they await the arrival of a Republican tax reform bill – so far stuck in the Senate on amendments to the reconciliation bill. The list of events that matter between now and Christmas is worth highlighting to get what may matter next after a exhausting week of Central Bank meetings and important data. This week four European central banks kept policy unchanged despite seeing better growth into 2018. Start with the Australian by-election in Sydney Saturady, where Turnbull’s government majority hangs in the balance, continue with the Chilean Presidential election Sunday, continu
e with the BOJ, and Catalan elections Dec 21, Today brought a mixed Japan Tankan survey led higher by capex plans, another Russian bank bailout (3rd this year) – and a surpise 50bps rate cut today to 7.75% from the central bank. Throw in the long wait for the EU formal approval of the UK divorce deal as still on the agenda along with Industrial Production in the US and the ongoing tax reform debate and you have a modestly busy news day – but a thinly traded one – filled with more concerns about next week and the year-end. The key risk-on and off drivers today are the same – US politics, global growth, other central banks needing to change policy like the US – all that seems to make today’s barometer the JPY more than the EUR or GBP – with the risk of 111.60 stops triggering at test to 110.8 being the outside shot.