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EUR 8.84
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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-pre-facts/
The day before the big risk events – before facts – is a pre-fact day – where alternative outcomes are considered and truth becomes a function of time rather than an internet tweet. The mood about risk flipped as papers report that former FBI director Comey won’t say that President Trump obstructed his investigation – and so reduces impeachment fears. The USD rally followed, equities bounces, Bond yields climbed. This was supported by a slightly better Australia GDP print, and extended by China policy hopes and equity rally. The EU news was weak with German factory orders, Italian retail sales and Spanish production all soggy and sufficient to leave some hope that the ECB tomorrow does nothing – driving the EUR to reverse sharply and lifting European shares accordingly. The fact that Iran suffered a terrorist attack from ISIS was ignored, as is the ongoing Qatar/GCC diplomatic war. The intrigue over politics continues to be about US Trump and UK May and the
ir ability to hold power. The net reaction of markets overnight to trade on pre-facts suggests we are in a holding pattern that is reducing the fuel load of positions and fears. The USD bounce is the guide as it unwinds from 8-month lows into risks of higher equities, an FOMC rate hike, steady bond yields. The pre-facts are that everything is correlated and so we all remain FX traders today with USD and GBP key for tomorrow.
The Morning Track pre-facts
- The Morning Track – Pre-Facts by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-pre-facts/
The day before the big risk events – before facts – is a pre-fact day – where alternative outcomes are considered and truth becomes a function of time rather than an internet tweet. The mood about risk flipped as papers report that former FBI director Comey won’t say that President Trump obstructed his investigation – and so reduces impeachment fears. The USD rally followed, equities bounces, Bond yields climbed. This was supported by a slightly better Australia GDP print, and extended by China policy hopes and equity rally. The EU news was weak with German factory orders, Italian retail sales and Spanish production all soggy and sufficient to leave some hope that the ECB tomorrow does nothing – driving the EUR to reverse sharply and lifting European shares accordingly. The fact that Iran suffered a terrorist attack from ISIS was ignored, as is the ongoing Qatar/GCC diplomatic war. The intrigue over politics continues to be about US Trump and UK May and the
ir ability to hold power. The net reaction of markets overnight to trade on pre-facts suggests we are in a holding pattern that is reducing the fuel load of positions and fears. The USD bounce is the guide as it unwinds from 8-month lows into risks of higher equities, an FOMC rate hike, steady bond yields. The pre-facts are that everything is correlated and so we all remain FX traders today with USD and GBP key for tomorrow.
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Robert Savage
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