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EUR 8.70
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-raw-deals/
Today is a US holiday so writing a market report ahead of the US open is more an exercise in understanding the trading day in Asia and Europe and preparing for tomorrow rather than anything more immediate. Given its winter here and the temperature won’t break freezing consider the 1948 film Raw Deal – worthy of understanding the old worldview of how emotional drama ends badly. The headlines aren’t about economics but politics with three stories catching the market focus -1) UK Brexit talk from Boris Johnson suggesting no deal is better than a soft deal means many are thinking the entire Brexit nightmare may just go away. This is wishful thinking and raw deals from the EU remain more likely. 2) The Trump push for a DACA and budget deal to avert yet another US government shutdown will be the sage in the US for the week. Democrats are wary. US Senate will also be voting on Powell nomination. 3) The Bundesbank will include CNY in its reserves according to Dombret spee
ch in Hong Kong at the Asia Forum. EUR/CNY is up 19% since Jan 2016 (when it created the RMB basket) – and perhaps this is a way to tell China to cap its depreciation against the EUR. Certainly it’s a way to intervene and support the CNY. Notable that the PBOC fix today was 0.55% stronger against the USD. The point of today maybe in the balancing of economic growth against the national interests for sustainability and stability – with the overnight speeches from IMF Lipton and BOJ Kuroda important to consider. The moves down in the USD dominate all markets and suggest that politics maybe more important than rates, growth or value – but the technical picture looks overdone and will make tomorrow a raw deal for those that think today’s trend will be easy to beat.
The Morning Track raw-deals
- The Morning Track – Raw Deals by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-raw-deals/
Today is a US holiday so writing a market report ahead of the US open is more an exercise in understanding the trading day in Asia and Europe and preparing for tomorrow rather than anything more immediate. Given its winter here and the temperature won’t break freezing consider the 1948 film Raw Deal – worthy of understanding the old worldview of how emotional drama ends badly. The headlines aren’t about economics but politics with three stories catching the market focus -1) UK Brexit talk from Boris Johnson suggesting no deal is better than a soft deal means many are thinking the entire Brexit nightmare may just go away. This is wishful thinking and raw deals from the EU remain more likely. 2) The Trump push for a DACA and budget deal to avert yet another US government shutdown will be the sage in the US for the week. Democrats are wary. US Senate will also be voting on Powell nomination. 3) The Bundesbank will include CNY in its reserves according to Dombret spee
ch in Hong Kong at the Asia Forum. EUR/CNY is up 19% since Jan 2016 (when it created the RMB basket) – and perhaps this is a way to tell China to cap its depreciation against the EUR. Certainly it’s a way to intervene and support the CNY. Notable that the PBOC fix today was 0.55% stronger against the USD. The point of today maybe in the balancing of economic growth against the national interests for sustainability and stability – with the overnight speeches from IMF Lipton and BOJ Kuroda important to consider. The moves down in the USD dominate all markets and suggest that politics maybe more important than rates, growth or value – but the technical picture looks overdone and will make tomorrow a raw deal for those that think today’s trend will be easy to beat.
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Robert Savage
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