EUR 8.40 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track skinny-tuesday

- The Morning Track – Skinny Tuesday? by Bob Savage
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Trading markets is all about sequencing. You have to have a calendar and a keen sense of expectations to get through the noise of news and events. Today is Fat Tuesday, the end of Carnival, and the last day before the start of Lent with Ash Wednesday. While few will see this calendar as important to markets, it does make the number of people paying attention smaller if only because of the holiday atmosphere from Brazil to Germany. There is no joy for risk today as the unwinding of expectations about US/China trade deals and global growth hits the complexity of reality. China National People’s Congress started today and the 2019 GDP target released at 6-6.5% from around 6.5% last year. A CNY2trn tax cut was also announced with VAT reductions and a budget deficit increase goal of 2.8% from 2.6% in 2018. All that seems skinny not fat and while China shares gained, most of the rest of the world is in the red. The economic data today was all about services and most of the
m were better with Japan growing, Australia getting worse, China getting worse, Europe stabilizing and the UK getting worse. This makes the hope for a 1Q soft-patch continue but in a modest way leaving anyone looking for value hoping for something bigger out of the US. The barometer for today in FX is the CAD with the BOC next on the list tomorrow for sounding dovish against geopolitical issues like China/Huawei, commodities and politics. The data and the BOC stalwart tightening bias seem at odds and in play with markets expecting something to give and the escape value for pressure is the currency first with 1.34 the pivotal resistance.