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EUR 9.28
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-snap/
Some insults are better than others. Calling an election maybe the biggest one for politicians – and perhaps this is the May over Corbyn moment. Even while greed beats fear being the most obvious retort for investors today – it remains too early to call with global equities clearly hurting. The return of Europe from its Easter Monday holiday and its Good Friday break was calm with less of a catch-up trade than some expected but that is quickly changing. The raw nerves over Syria, North Korea and the French election remain clear but a new factor drove today with UK PM May calling a snap election for June 8. Her goal is a larger mandate for the new world post the EU. The balancing act for investors continues to be one about growth and inflation on one hand against fear and destabilizing policies on the other starting with voters – and the UK calling for another round surprised the market. The latest opinion polls for the UK put Conservatives at 21% lead over Labour wh
ile some others see it as narrow as 9%. The real story is about the Tory party itself as it needs a 2/3 vote to approve this UK PM request and that maybe tricky and it opens room for the Liberal Democrats and their pro-Europe stance as well. So far has not led to an unwinding of the GBP safety trade vs. the EUR as a anecdote to the French election tail-risk. Many hope that Macron and Fillon are the second round rather than the Le Pen and Melenchon combination – but that it’s too close to call seems obvious and begs the question about learning the lessons of Brexit. This leaves markets returning to other safe-haven games as equities wobble in part because of growth doubts from the US – with NAHB and NY Empire Fed both weaker yesterday, but IP and housing starts are likely more important today. The USD remains on the ropes and doesn’t seem to care about rate spreads gold holds bid while the big winner on the day is the UK – as GBP watches the 200-day at 1.2620 and
thinks of more insults for those that fear change.
The Morning Track snap
- The Morning Track – Snap by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-snap/
Some insults are better than others. Calling an election maybe the biggest one for politicians – and perhaps this is the May over Corbyn moment. Even while greed beats fear being the most obvious retort for investors today – it remains too early to call with global equities clearly hurting. The return of Europe from its Easter Monday holiday and its Good Friday break was calm with less of a catch-up trade than some expected but that is quickly changing. The raw nerves over Syria, North Korea and the French election remain clear but a new factor drove today with UK PM May calling a snap election for June 8. Her goal is a larger mandate for the new world post the EU. The balancing act for investors continues to be one about growth and inflation on one hand against fear and destabilizing policies on the other starting with voters – and the UK calling for another round surprised the market. The latest opinion polls for the UK put Conservatives at 21% lead over Labour wh
ile some others see it as narrow as 9%. The real story is about the Tory party itself as it needs a 2/3 vote to approve this UK PM request and that maybe tricky and it opens room for the Liberal Democrats and their pro-Europe stance as well. So far has not led to an unwinding of the GBP safety trade vs. the EUR as a anecdote to the French election tail-risk. Many hope that Macron and Fillon are the second round rather than the Le Pen and Melenchon combination – but that it’s too close to call seems obvious and begs the question about learning the lessons of Brexit. This leaves markets returning to other safe-haven games as equities wobble in part because of growth doubts from the US – with NAHB and NY Empire Fed both weaker yesterday, but IP and housing starts are likely more important today. The USD remains on the ropes and doesn’t seem to care about rate spreads gold holds bid while the big winner on the day is the UK – as GBP watches the 200-day at 1.2620 and
thinks of more insults for those that fear change.
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Robert Savage
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