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EUR 8.84
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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-solstice-2/
Welcome to Summer – and the sun is shining – but the news provide a bit of cloud cover - the UK opens its Parliament with the Queen’s speech, the Belgians shrug off terrorist attack, the Chinese market runs to 18-month highs after MSCI inclusion, the Saudi King reshuffled leadership, French President loses another cabinet member (now 4) as ethic investigations plague the new government, US Republicans won a hotly contested Georgia seat bringing some relief to Trump agenda watchers. These headlines are mostly political and highlight that until we get new big data and more policy pronouncements from central bankers, the tug and pull of risk is about positions. Oil and GBP are the main focus still – with GBP dipping briefly below the 1.26 support as some doubt the DUP/May coalition but bouncing back after BOE Haldane comments and all tempered while WTI runs into a bear market, 20% below its peak this year. T
The problem is that GBP isn’t much of a barometer for political risk anymore – the election is over, Brexit is on and the BOE is clearly divided – perhaps Carney will chat with Haldane. But for traders the more pertinent safe-haven guide is the JPY – with the highs of US shares correlating nicely to the rise in USD/JPY with the rate noise of the FOMC and other things comfortably lost. The JPY today is the key focus for anyone thinking that the US summer solitics could be the start of a longer winter elsewhere.
The Morning Track solstice-2
- The Morning Track - Solstice by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-solstice-2/
Welcome to Summer – and the sun is shining – but the news provide a bit of cloud cover - the UK opens its Parliament with the Queen’s speech, the Belgians shrug off terrorist attack, the Chinese market runs to 18-month highs after MSCI inclusion, the Saudi King reshuffled leadership, French President loses another cabinet member (now 4) as ethic investigations plague the new government, US Republicans won a hotly contested Georgia seat bringing some relief to Trump agenda watchers. These headlines are mostly political and highlight that until we get new big data and more policy pronouncements from central bankers, the tug and pull of risk is about positions. Oil and GBP are the main focus still – with GBP dipping briefly below the 1.26 support as some doubt the DUP/May coalition but bouncing back after BOE Haldane comments and all tempered while WTI runs into a bear market, 20% below its peak this year. T
The problem is that GBP isn’t much of a barometer for political risk anymore – the election is over, Brexit is on and the BOE is clearly divided – perhaps Carney will chat with Haldane. But for traders the more pertinent safe-haven guide is the JPY – with the highs of US shares correlating nicely to the rise in USD/JPY with the rate noise of the FOMC and other things comfortably lost. The JPY today is the key focus for anyone thinking that the US summer solitics could be the start of a longer winter elsewhere.
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Robert Savage
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