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The April Fools trick for markets was that the rally yesterday was no joke. The momentum higher in risk assets persists with a few exceptions like Turkey and Italian shares. The USD is up, bonds are up, stocks are up and oil is up world persists but in a more subdued fashion. This moderation in mood may pivot on US/China trade or Brexit or momentum continuing – I highlight 2 standouts as drivers from overnight that might matter in the US:
• Brexit Still - The UK Parliament rejected all 4 Brexit motions making the path to no-deal exit in 10 days that much more probable. Most analysts see another referendum as the only way out since neither party looks for another election, while UK press pushes for EU-customs union deal.
• BTC Breakout – Bitcoin rallies 15% in Asia breaking out of $4200 -$4400 resistance and opening $5000 retest (high $5089.90 so far) with bulls now targeting $6000. The rise in BTC in 1Q correlated to equities and the extension in Asia appears to be with good volume - $44bn average, the most since Jan 2018. This brings the digital asset market cap to $160bn – back to November 2018 levels.
Otherwise we are back to a world watching to see if moderation in everything matters. The USD is the barometer of choice again for such divergence games as the theory goes if the FOMC starts to move away from dovish to hawkish again – watch out – and until then play beta and trade passively.
The Morning Track subdued-5
- The Morning Track – Subdued by Bob Savage/articles/the-morning-track-subdued-5/
The April Fools trick for markets was that the rally yesterday was no joke. The momentum higher in risk assets persists with a few exceptions like Turkey and Italian shares. The USD is up, bonds are up, stocks are up and oil is up world persists but in a more subdued fashion. This moderation in mood may pivot on US/China trade or Brexit or momentum continuing – I highlight 2 standouts as drivers from overnight that might matter in the US:
• Brexit Still - The UK Parliament rejected all 4 Brexit motions making the path to no-deal exit in 10 days that much more probable. Most analysts see another referendum as the only way out since neither party looks for another election, while UK press pushes for EU-customs union deal.
• BTC Breakout – Bitcoin rallies 15% in Asia breaking out of $4200 -$4400 resistance and opening $5000 retest (high $5089.90 so far) with bulls now targeting $6000. The rise in BTC in 1Q correlated to equities and the extension in Asia appears to be with good volume - $44bn average, the most since Jan 2018. This brings the digital asset market cap to $160bn – back to November 2018 levels.
Otherwise we are back to a world watching to see if moderation in everything matters. The USD is the barometer of choice again for such divergence games as the theory goes if the FOMC starts to move away from dovish to hawkish again – watch out – and until then play beta and trade passively.
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Robert Savage
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