Report
EUR 8.84
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-sunny-outlooks/
Weather and moods frequently dance together. Markets have become sunny again with outlooks for the next 2 months ebullient like the weather forecasts making many plan a holiday. This is the end of Ramadan and Sunday’s Eid al-Fitr leaves much of the Asia and some of EMEA closed for such. Price movements require surprise and when everyone expects good news and positive price action – generally less happens particularly if they already have that position and risk. So the day ahead rests on surprise more than the news overnight. Focus was on 3 points – San Francisco Fed Williams seeing 2% CPI next year and more hikes; German IFO surging to new record highs; Italy promising E17bn to clean up 2 failed Venetian banks. There was also the sweep of the Center-Right in the weekend municipal elections in many cities but with low voter turnout 46% but Renzi still suffered losses in 11 cities for the PD including some key places like Genoa and La Spezia. These stories really didn
’t matter too much as there was little shock – no clouds on the horizon from them and so we march up in equities, up in the USD, down in bonds. The sharpest move today was in gold – as it is the safe-haven no one needs anymore this summer – and its drop of $18 to the 200-day support at $1236 confirms this point. Bond market flattening trades persist with month-end demand; Italian banks rally on government support rather than a bail-in; USD lower as capital flows into growth – particularly EM. Perhaps the most important price action was the recovery of oil – as its stability promotes a “Goldilocks†condition for risk – not-too-hot nor too-cold for future inflation. Any clouds are political with focus on UK Brexit and the PM May leadership – with DUP/Tory coalition expected to be official today - on US/Mexico NAFTA talks; on the US Senate Obamacare repeal/replace plan. All of this puts the markets back to watching safe-havens as barometers for the weather
ahead – with Gold leading today but JPY a close second, EUR/CHF and US bonds also in play.
The Morning Track sunny-outlooks
- The Morning Track – Sunny Outlooks by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-sunny-outlooks/
Weather and moods frequently dance together. Markets have become sunny again with outlooks for the next 2 months ebullient like the weather forecasts making many plan a holiday. This is the end of Ramadan and Sunday’s Eid al-Fitr leaves much of the Asia and some of EMEA closed for such. Price movements require surprise and when everyone expects good news and positive price action – generally less happens particularly if they already have that position and risk. So the day ahead rests on surprise more than the news overnight. Focus was on 3 points – San Francisco Fed Williams seeing 2% CPI next year and more hikes; German IFO surging to new record highs; Italy promising E17bn to clean up 2 failed Venetian banks. There was also the sweep of the Center-Right in the weekend municipal elections in many cities but with low voter turnout 46% but Renzi still suffered losses in 11 cities for the PD including some key places like Genoa and La Spezia. These stories really didn
’t matter too much as there was little shock – no clouds on the horizon from them and so we march up in equities, up in the USD, down in bonds. The sharpest move today was in gold – as it is the safe-haven no one needs anymore this summer – and its drop of $18 to the 200-day support at $1236 confirms this point. Bond market flattening trades persist with month-end demand; Italian banks rally on government support rather than a bail-in; USD lower as capital flows into growth – particularly EM. Perhaps the most important price action was the recovery of oil – as its stability promotes a “Goldilocks†condition for risk – not-too-hot nor too-cold for future inflation. Any clouds are political with focus on UK Brexit and the PM May leadership – with DUP/Tory coalition expected to be official today - on US/Mexico NAFTA talks; on the US Senate Obamacare repeal/replace plan. All of this puts the markets back to watching safe-havens as barometers for the weather
ahead – with Gold leading today but JPY a close second, EUR/CHF and US bonds also in play.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.