EUR 8.70 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track tempered

- The Morning Track – Tempered by Bob Savage
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-tempered/

Consider the reaction of the market to the mercurial Trump policy on trade tempered today. We are like new phone class, more likely to crumble than crack on risk. Focus today is on the ECB, trade reports from China, German factory orders and, of course, US trade policy. Today, Trump is expected to deliver his tariffs decree, despite dissent from some Republicans and push-back from many allies. The lack of fear despite uncertainty inspires many to return to equities, doubt bonds and rebuy the USD just in case global growth extends with inflation in hand. The data overnight was about trade – with China’s surplus staggering and surprising. The export leap and drop in imports is enough to make clear the imbalance problem. Japan saw its GDP revised higher, its C/A surplus wider and its EcoWatchers sentiment dive. The German factory orders missed the expectations as well – setting the stage for Draghi to sound anyway he needs to steady the market fears about trade and re
flate Europe. This game all seems a bit tired and so it goes with many noting that its actions not words that matter most. US rate hikes are lifting the USD eventually, despite other risks like trade, inflation, deficits and the anger of allies. The USD is above the 21-day at 89.80 with 90.29 the March 2 highs to aspire to should the ECB talk down the EUR as many expect. This is a tempered market with all the issues of heating and reheating leading to less painful cracks but more useless markets as they search for real growth and returns.