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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-the-maria-problem/
Bad luck comes in threes. The category 5 hurricane Maria is due to hit Puerto Rico and follow much the same path as Irma making more complicated the recovery for Florida. There is a whiff of doubt for markets today after running hot for a week and a half. This might be the Maria story but there are other conflicts. While man vs. nature isn’t a new it’s still more powerful than man vs. market – as the bankruptcy of Toys R’ Us confirms – it’s not sufficient to change the risk mood. The threat of man vs. man – as in the case of North Korea facing a US military option that won’t involve South Korea remains a concern but a distant third in conflicts – particularly as US Trump speaks to the UN today. The focus overnight on risks moderation was choppy and again revolved around rates with the HKMA fighting to support HKD, China adding liquidity and CNY dropping, JPY weaker and Abe snap election expectations rising with Nikkei and in Europe – the mood is great
– witness the German ZEW roaring higher – but the rates are flat and the focus is on German election and Brexit still. UK is moderating its GBP rally on BOE rate hike hopes as many see a more complicated economy ahead with real estate fears rising. The moderation of the GBP today sets the tone for the USD and it seems to track the same path perhaps we are all caught traveling over the Atlantic like Marie – but maybe other conflicts matter more with FOMC staring at inflation
The Morning Track the-maria-problem
- The Morning Track – The Maria Problem by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-the-maria-problem/
Bad luck comes in threes. The category 5 hurricane Maria is due to hit Puerto Rico and follow much the same path as Irma making more complicated the recovery for Florida. There is a whiff of doubt for markets today after running hot for a week and a half. This might be the Maria story but there are other conflicts. While man vs. nature isn’t a new it’s still more powerful than man vs. market – as the bankruptcy of Toys R’ Us confirms – it’s not sufficient to change the risk mood. The threat of man vs. man – as in the case of North Korea facing a US military option that won’t involve South Korea remains a concern but a distant third in conflicts – particularly as US Trump speaks to the UN today. The focus overnight on risks moderation was choppy and again revolved around rates with the HKMA fighting to support HKD, China adding liquidity and CNY dropping, JPY weaker and Abe snap election expectations rising with Nikkei and in Europe – the mood is great
– witness the German ZEW roaring higher – but the rates are flat and the focus is on German election and Brexit still. UK is moderating its GBP rally on BOE rate hike hopes as many see a more complicated economy ahead with real estate fears rising. The moderation of the GBP today sets the tone for the USD and it seems to track the same path perhaps we are all caught traveling over the Atlantic like Marie – but maybe other conflicts matter more with FOMC staring at inflation
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Robert Savage
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