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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-whipsaw-surprise/
Investors and traders hate surprises and yet that is what we get again. Polls showed Clinton beating Trump by 3% winning the Senate and making ground on the House. Instead we have President-elect Trump with a Republican Congress. The numbers speak louder than words today, Trump wins 276 to Clinton’s 218 Electoral College votes, The Senate is 51-47 with 2 independents and the House is 236 to 191 in favor of the Republicans. This is beyond a “Brexit†or “Colombia FARC†surprise as it affects the world in a far larger way. Markets went into risk-off mode as the reality of the moment became understood. US politics have turned inward with many distressed voters look for change away from globalization. The US won’t lead with military interventions, free trade or a new knowledge economy. The whipsaw moment came when Trump started to speak and stressed global unity, good relations in the world. But the policies and cabinet of the new administration aren’t certain
or even well discussed making anyone trading today more an emotional reaction than a rational decision. There are a number of policies that are going to change – Global Trade (TPP at risk), US Foreign Policy (Iran deal at risk), Healthcare (Obamacare is rewritten), Taxes (going lower for corporates), Supreme Court (Easy confirmation of 9th judge), Global Warming (Paris Accord at risk), Immigration (more stringent entry into the US). All of these were part of the campaign and national debate and will be dependent on how the new President deals with an old Republican Party and a distressed Democrat one. The cabinet choices will be critical in making this all work. Buying the dip in the US market will be the central question – swamping any news or data – even as the Chinese PPI beat expectations higher, Japan EcoWatchers improved and the UK Trade Deficit widens as a weaker GBP doesn’t work to drive exports. There are big lessons for the world ahead – the first bei
ng never trust another poll; the second being never trust the media, and the third being never trade a trend into political risk. The key for trading risk is JPY and its cross – with 101 essential to hold for any buying of dips to work.
The Morning Track whipsaw-surprise
- The Morning Track – Whipsaw Surprise by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-whipsaw-surprise/
Investors and traders hate surprises and yet that is what we get again. Polls showed Clinton beating Trump by 3% winning the Senate and making ground on the House. Instead we have President-elect Trump with a Republican Congress. The numbers speak louder than words today, Trump wins 276 to Clinton’s 218 Electoral College votes, The Senate is 51-47 with 2 independents and the House is 236 to 191 in favor of the Republicans. This is beyond a “Brexit†or “Colombia FARC†surprise as it affects the world in a far larger way. Markets went into risk-off mode as the reality of the moment became understood. US politics have turned inward with many distressed voters look for change away from globalization. The US won’t lead with military interventions, free trade or a new knowledge economy. The whipsaw moment came when Trump started to speak and stressed global unity, good relations in the world. But the policies and cabinet of the new administration aren’t certain
or even well discussed making anyone trading today more an emotional reaction than a rational decision. There are a number of policies that are going to change – Global Trade (TPP at risk), US Foreign Policy (Iran deal at risk), Healthcare (Obamacare is rewritten), Taxes (going lower for corporates), Supreme Court (Easy confirmation of 9th judge), Global Warming (Paris Accord at risk), Immigration (more stringent entry into the US). All of these were part of the campaign and national debate and will be dependent on how the new President deals with an old Republican Party and a distressed Democrat one. The cabinet choices will be critical in making this all work. Buying the dip in the US market will be the central question – swamping any news or data – even as the Chinese PPI beat expectations higher, Japan EcoWatchers improved and the UK Trade Deficit widens as a weaker GBP doesn’t work to drive exports. There are big lessons for the world ahead – the first bei
ng never trust another poll; the second being never trust the media, and the third being never trade a trend into political risk. The key for trading risk is JPY and its cross – with 101 essential to hold for any buying of dips to work.
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Robert Savage
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