EUR 9.28 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track zhdun

- The Morning Track - Zhdun by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-zhdun/

The Dutch “one who waits” icon has become more than a sculpture in front of children’s hospital. Waiting is the point of the art but it’s become a meme in Russia and the Ukraine as everyone waits for politicians to deliver on promised reforms. The image may even take off for markets as without feet, there is no place to run, and that leaves only the data to propel risk higher. Waiting for the FOMC or the French election risk to disappear or the EU bank risks – nothing seems simple anymore and that makes “time” the key to trading as momentum for the uptrend sags. The rise in China FX reserves back over $3trn seems convenient but not material in changing the mood. Rather the big drop in German factory orders seems more to the point as the mood in Germany doesn’t seem to match the reality on the ground. Similarly, the RBA on hold with a bullish view on the rest of the world but worries about the stronger A$ seem likely to make waiting less fun. The GBP is wor
th focusing on today as an example of how waiting can hurt – witness the Brexit fears regaining headlines with BOE seemingly capping rates even while growth sags as higher costs and ugly politics get worse. The Northern Irish government looks set to fall in part due to Brexit – and the Scottish tiff continues. The United Kingdom frays and with it the GBP. The 1.2165 support in GBP maybe the last gasp before 1.20 and another round of doubts about how to fix the issues that that matter to voters like immigration, jobs and trade.