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The Weekly Track action-heroes

- The Weekly Track – Action Heroes by Bob Savage
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There are no real heroes left in the world of politics, just survivors. The split of markets post 2008 has become manifested in the middle class both in the US and in Europe. Many see the need for action heroes in both places. We all want someone to swoop done and correct the inherent unfairness of it all whether its UK Brexit, China trade, US foreign policy or European rules on spending. Growth and inflation continue to be the reality checks for the investing world where there are no such action figures to replace Merkel or Draghi in 2019. Even worse, the US mid-terms have left the markets stuck in gridlock. The lack of faith shows up in the way markets price oil and the USD. For most of 2018 the USD has been the action hero that provided the safe-haven against the rest of the world’s problems. US divergence in rates and growth led the USD and much of that is now in question for 2019. Whispers about the FOMC changing their bias from tightening to neutral or fears
that US tariffs will come back to bite in 2019 are driving something very different into the month end of November. Instead of a magical toy-land of action heroes driving a Christmas rally in risk. The other barometer is oil which has become disenchanted with the power of OPEC and fears the US energy independence. The relationship of oil to the USD to technology maybe the place to focus in the next week.