EUR 23.44 For Business Accounts Only

The Weekly Track almost-2

- The Weekly Track – Almost by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-almost-2/

The week ahead is about rates – with the FOMC dominating the risks – not because we will be surprised if they hike but more about what they say for 2017. We are almost done with fear across all markets – with the confidence that we are all on the nice list not the naughty one. Over the weekend, the OPEC meeting with non-OPEC leads to the expected 600,000 bpd cut in output –the first deal since 2001 - but we also get that Saudi in the midst of talks last month pumped 10.72mbd of oil – a new record – up from 10.625mbd and much more than the 10.45mbd expected. The Saudis have pledge to cut this back to 10.058mbd January 1 – so this will be tricky for December and make markets even more nervous about compliance – will there be a “naughty” list in January too?

The Seasonality Index for major indices suggest we are not yet in the USD peak for bullish gain while Emerging Markets , the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are all in the middle of their big seasonal push. Interestingly, the oil market seasonals don’t kick in until February. Commodities are following their normal patterns while the USD and the DJ transports are not. The week ahead is also about the targets we all have made for 2016 and the expectations that we are running out of time – with the last full week of trading also crazy for markets shifting into year-end positioning and window dressing. This makes the biggest “almost” likely to be the DJIA 20,000 – with this almost reason enough to believe in Santa.