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The Weekly Track anticipation

- The Weekly Track - Anticipation by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-anticipation/

This is the time of year when light is a precious commodity in the North and hope dominates. The markets are full of hope for a new 2017 - one full of real growth, just the right amount of inflation, less angry voters, leaders bent on solving global problems and something better. We are all children again looking up the chimney expecting at any moment the appearance of Santa Claus. Of course, there are some stories that aren’t so hopeful – like the tragedy of Aleppo or the ongoing tensions between the US and China in the South China Sea, or the US and Russia over hacking and the election. The week ahead is one of waiting with the Monday, Electoral College vote the final chapter for the US election, the last big central bank meeting of the year – with the Bank of Japan – and then we get winter, with the US focused on 3Q GDP, PCE, house sales, durable goods, the consumer confidence and the level of the stock market ahead of Christmas. Over the weekend, the smog in
Beijing lead to the shutting of 1200 companies according to Bloomberg. The weekend news also brought some stories about 2017 – from Japan banks talking about leaving London, to the US promising to make a new UK trade deal (according to Wilbur Ross over the weekend), to Venezuela riots as the government removes larger bills from circulation – taking a note from India. The world maybe full of hope and fear in the same breath. Consider the effects of the FOMC decision last week and what it means for the economy – few economists see more than 2 hikes next year – with just a 46% chance priced into the market - and the number that are warning of a recession are on the rise. Here is the survey result from the FT.