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http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-arachnophobia/
The big stories didn’t matter much in the first quarter, but the little ones they could kill you. If you only focused on China debt or Trump or the French elections then you missed out on the money. The shift in fear of big events to the rather normal focus on the little ones has not yet led to active managers beating passive ones– but the hope for a bigger dispersion in trading shares and credit persists into 2Q and with it the fear of the little things – like spiders unwinding their webs - or indices blowing up. There are plenty of people that think spiders are looking at them day and night and they might be right. That paranoia could spill into the second quarter as well as markets are set up with a heavy dose of “irrational exuberance†driven by the hopes for fast policy shifts in the US pumping fiscal help into a rather tired recovery. The other webs the ensnare investors into 2Q revolve around oil prices and ECB/BOJ success in fighting deflation – with
the big moves in rates not in the US but rather in Japan and Europe. There were little moves in FX that also confused as JPY gained as did EM FX – making the carry trade great in G30 and rough in G10 currencies. There was similar confusion in commodities as oil has failed to breakout or breakdown but Gold is flashing, like JPY, something different about risk. If you gathered up all the spiders in the world they would weigh about 25 million tons. Some facts can be scary – like that one from the Science of Nature report March 14 by Martin Nyffeler and Klaus Birkhofer. Spiders east about 10% of their body weight in food a day. The world's spiders consume somewhere between 400 million and 800 million tons of prey in any given year. That means that spiders eat at least as much meat as all 7 billion humans on the planet combined, and that they could consume all of mankind in a year. The good news is that spiders diet is 90% insects though, n addition to this, some larger sp
iders occasionally prey on earthworms, slugs, snails, and small vertebrates and exist in all parts of the world from the Arctic to the desert to the rainforests.
The Weekly Track arachnophobia
- The Weekly Track – Arachnophobia by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-arachnophobia/
The big stories didn’t matter much in the first quarter, but the little ones they could kill you. If you only focused on China debt or Trump or the French elections then you missed out on the money. The shift in fear of big events to the rather normal focus on the little ones has not yet led to active managers beating passive ones– but the hope for a bigger dispersion in trading shares and credit persists into 2Q and with it the fear of the little things – like spiders unwinding their webs - or indices blowing up. There are plenty of people that think spiders are looking at them day and night and they might be right. That paranoia could spill into the second quarter as well as markets are set up with a heavy dose of “irrational exuberance†driven by the hopes for fast policy shifts in the US pumping fiscal help into a rather tired recovery. The other webs the ensnare investors into 2Q revolve around oil prices and ECB/BOJ success in fighting deflation – with
the big moves in rates not in the US but rather in Japan and Europe. There were little moves in FX that also confused as JPY gained as did EM FX – making the carry trade great in G30 and rough in G10 currencies. There was similar confusion in commodities as oil has failed to breakout or breakdown but Gold is flashing, like JPY, something different about risk. If you gathered up all the spiders in the world they would weigh about 25 million tons. Some facts can be scary – like that one from the Science of Nature report March 14 by Martin Nyffeler and Klaus Birkhofer. Spiders east about 10% of their body weight in food a day. The world's spiders consume somewhere between 400 million and 800 million tons of prey in any given year. That means that spiders eat at least as much meat as all 7 billion humans on the planet combined, and that they could consume all of mankind in a year. The good news is that spiders diet is 90% insects though, n addition to this, some larger sp
iders occasionally prey on earthworms, slugs, snails, and small vertebrates and exist in all parts of the world from the Arctic to the desert to the rainforests.
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Robert Savage
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