Report
EUR 22.62
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-barriers/
Do good fences really make good neighbors? We are about to find out whether it’s a literal or a figurative barrier – all matter in the present environment. If you want to keep a bear you have a cage, if you want to keep a bull you have a fence. The differences are clear for investors, as bulls have beaten bears in equities for decades. The present bull-run appears far from over but the break of 20,000 DJIA (a milestone marker) will be remembered in the week past. This is where money takes a rethink and considers if markets rather than economies can see secular changes because of age. The reasons for the market rally have been linked to Trump policy at first, but this become more a 4Q earnings story in the last week. Rate policy and the value of the USD are also part of the puzzle and it was clear that equities dominated last week more than bonds or FX – making the point. Correlations are causality but the rise up in equities lifted bond yields and in turn the U
SD from the lows. The issue for many is whether this lead from equities will continue with Trump and earnings the support or whether the bond market will break its own 10Y 2.65% barrier and dominate after the FOMC this week. The USD has lost its steam but not its trend with 100 mostly holding on the US dollar index opening up 103-105 tests later should bonds and stocks continue on trend. Similarly, the demand for commodities is being rethought with equity prices and last week saw a further extension in commodity-linked FX winners with NOK and NZD standouts. The barriers there are for whether oil can really sustainably break $55 bbl for WTI and regain momentum after 2 weeks of consolidation. All of which brings about the key question for the week ahead – whether we continue to see subdued risks and fears with the robust uptrend in equities beating down the VIX to near historic lows – or if the political and other uncertainty drives more risk reversals and a lift up i
n volatility.
The Weekly Track barriers
- The Weekly Track - Barriers by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-barriers/
Do good fences really make good neighbors? We are about to find out whether it’s a literal or a figurative barrier – all matter in the present environment. If you want to keep a bear you have a cage, if you want to keep a bull you have a fence. The differences are clear for investors, as bulls have beaten bears in equities for decades. The present bull-run appears far from over but the break of 20,000 DJIA (a milestone marker) will be remembered in the week past. This is where money takes a rethink and considers if markets rather than economies can see secular changes because of age. The reasons for the market rally have been linked to Trump policy at first, but this become more a 4Q earnings story in the last week. Rate policy and the value of the USD are also part of the puzzle and it was clear that equities dominated last week more than bonds or FX – making the point. Correlations are causality but the rise up in equities lifted bond yields and in turn the U
SD from the lows. The issue for many is whether this lead from equities will continue with Trump and earnings the support or whether the bond market will break its own 10Y 2.65% barrier and dominate after the FOMC this week. The USD has lost its steam but not its trend with 100 mostly holding on the US dollar index opening up 103-105 tests later should bonds and stocks continue on trend. Similarly, the demand for commodities is being rethought with equity prices and last week saw a further extension in commodity-linked FX winners with NOK and NZD standouts. The barriers there are for whether oil can really sustainably break $55 bbl for WTI and regain momentum after 2 weeks of consolidation. All of which brings about the key question for the week ahead – whether we continue to see subdued risks and fears with the robust uptrend in equities beating down the VIX to near historic lows – or if the political and other uncertainty drives more risk reversals and a lift up i
n volatility.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.