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http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-endings/
This is the beginning of the end of the year for markets. Next week the US markets will be thin with the Thanksgiving Holiday and Black Friday leading into month end and the flip to December with all its pressure to end the year well – including the GOP push to pass tax reform, raise the debt ceiling, and further deregulate the economy, while the FOMC likely hikes rates, the rest of the world’s central bankers are on hold with the greater uncertainties of 2018 looming in the backdrop with geopolitics, as NAFTA and Brexit crack hit global trade, as OPEC considers how to sustain oil prices at $60 while Saudi and Iran heat up their cold war, while North Korea continues to nag the US and China and while Russia continues to cast a longer shadow over Europe from Turkey to the Ukraine. The US dollar holds but hasn’t prospered while the Chinese Yuan has beat expectations as China races for stability and a larger share of global power.
The focus of the markets in the past week was on the power of bubbles not yet popping, with a da Vinci painting selling for $450mn, on gold hitting one month highs, on Bitcoin nearing $8000 with fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) buyers, but with oil suffering its first loss in 6-weeks, the USD down for the second week despite steady rates, more FOMC rate hikes priced, with bond curves flattening to decade lows, and with equities lower across major economies, suffering as emerging markets bounced. High yield bonds also suffered with the 3rd largest outflow on record but overall, despite a majority of analysts calling for a larger correction we saw more buying-the-dip and more complacency about how to invest over the next few weeks. What seems clear is that many markets maybe over valued but not yet into a euphoric bubble phase or bubble pop drop. The lack of larger moves across many markets frustrates those looking for a turn in trend or those that have bought up protection for the
worst-case scenario. 2017 has surprised us all for being the best-case with the least trouble to bad news events and geopolitical risks.
The Weekly Track endings
- The Weekly Track - Endings by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-endings/
This is the beginning of the end of the year for markets. Next week the US markets will be thin with the Thanksgiving Holiday and Black Friday leading into month end and the flip to December with all its pressure to end the year well – including the GOP push to pass tax reform, raise the debt ceiling, and further deregulate the economy, while the FOMC likely hikes rates, the rest of the world’s central bankers are on hold with the greater uncertainties of 2018 looming in the backdrop with geopolitics, as NAFTA and Brexit crack hit global trade, as OPEC considers how to sustain oil prices at $60 while Saudi and Iran heat up their cold war, while North Korea continues to nag the US and China and while Russia continues to cast a longer shadow over Europe from Turkey to the Ukraine. The US dollar holds but hasn’t prospered while the Chinese Yuan has beat expectations as China races for stability and a larger share of global power.
The focus of the markets in the past week was on the power of bubbles not yet popping, with a da Vinci painting selling for $450mn, on gold hitting one month highs, on Bitcoin nearing $8000 with fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) buyers, but with oil suffering its first loss in 6-weeks, the USD down for the second week despite steady rates, more FOMC rate hikes priced, with bond curves flattening to decade lows, and with equities lower across major economies, suffering as emerging markets bounced. High yield bonds also suffered with the 3rd largest outflow on record but overall, despite a majority of analysts calling for a larger correction we saw more buying-the-dip and more complacency about how to invest over the next few weeks. What seems clear is that many markets maybe over valued but not yet into a euphoric bubble phase or bubble pop drop. The lack of larger moves across many markets frustrates those looking for a turn in trend or those that have bought up protection for the
worst-case scenario. 2017 has surprised us all for being the best-case with the least trouble to bad news events and geopolitical risks.
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Robert Savage
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