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The Weekly Track first-snow

- The Weekly Track – First Snow by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-first-snow/

The first snow of the season in the Northeast hit early with Thanksgiving and Trump still on everyone’s mind. The weather has been unpredictable like voters and markets. The melting of global ice remains one of those stories that never gets much press but somehow makes clear that Arctic weather moves south whether in the US or Siberia. This is noise, like snow on the ground, hiding the real risks ahead with many arguing that the USD rally and rate move higher are overdone and need some restraint with global coordination the whisper by the fires of those still confused and cold post Brexit and Trump. The weekend APEC summit was a scramble for press as China Xi pushed for new free trade options while Trump met with Romney and buried the hatchet opening up the path towards nominating him for Secretary of State. Obama pushed for calm and patience on US policy saying “give the new President a chance,” to the US allies and perhaps continuing to telegraph his own doubts a
bout the reality in January. Most of the weekend was a continuation of political analysis on how Trump won, what it means for investors and for the world. For the Chinese it’s an opportunity – “China will not shut its door to the outside world but open more," Xi said in a keynote address at APEC. "We're going to...make sure the fruits of development are shared." For the rest, its about relative rates whether in bonds or taxes, real growth and wages. The ability for the USD to continue to rally sharply to 2003 highs and for US rates to rise 55bps in 2 weeks without damaging equities – those are the key things hidden by the snow of news and talk. Perhaps the most interesting balancing act is about the risks ahead with the S&P500 actual intraday volatility on a trend lower into the holidays and the expected usual year-end buying spree. December has produced an average 0.88% gain for the S&P500 with 49 winners and 17 losers over since 1950.