Report
EUR 22.06
For Business Accounts Only
/articles/the-weekly-track-fools/
Spring and April Fool’s Day await and markets have delivered the expected in like a lion and out like a lamb result for investors in March. Seasonal noises have delivered the expected up month for March and leave the April outlook expecting the same. The central fear is that rushing into the present risk asset rally feels foolish even with the seasonal push, given the fear displayed by various central bankers and the fixed income markets that suggest the growth cycle has turned. US investors look to be playing for divergence as the rest of the world suffers.
The drop in the VIX seems at odds with the spike in the MOVE index. The lack of fear beats greed in many places but in FX markets where emerging currencies suffer and safe-haven’s like CHF gain adds to the view that growth no longer drives investments. This isn’t a world for the faint hearted even as many would like to suggest it’s a return to Goldilocks as the FOMC is on hold and needs data good or bad to jolt it out of eating the “just right†porridge of equities. TINA (there is no alternative) thinking for equities dominates the return of passive plays against active managers and leaves risk parity returns outperforming again.
There are cracks in the carry trade and doubts about growth rebounding sufficiently to matter as well. Are the angels of the markets, the FOMC, ECB, BOJ and others, fearful of a larger and longer soft-patch in growth or is it even worse as the markets diverge into liquidity trap thinking and inverted yield-curves predicting recessions? Is the 2020 hike projected by the FOMC dots ludicrous to the 25bps and more cuts priced? That set of questions dominates the fools-rush-in fear from bonds in March against the seasonal winning push for equities into April. The usual factors of fear from Brexit to US/China trade talks to elections everywhere are likely to scare even angels from the present risk-on course.
The Weekly Track fools
- The Weekly Track – Fools by Bob Savage/articles/the-weekly-track-fools/
Spring and April Fool’s Day await and markets have delivered the expected in like a lion and out like a lamb result for investors in March. Seasonal noises have delivered the expected up month for March and leave the April outlook expecting the same. The central fear is that rushing into the present risk asset rally feels foolish even with the seasonal push, given the fear displayed by various central bankers and the fixed income markets that suggest the growth cycle has turned. US investors look to be playing for divergence as the rest of the world suffers.
The drop in the VIX seems at odds with the spike in the MOVE index. The lack of fear beats greed in many places but in FX markets where emerging currencies suffer and safe-haven’s like CHF gain adds to the view that growth no longer drives investments. This isn’t a world for the faint hearted even as many would like to suggest it’s a return to Goldilocks as the FOMC is on hold and needs data good or bad to jolt it out of eating the “just right†porridge of equities. TINA (there is no alternative) thinking for equities dominates the return of passive plays against active managers and leaves risk parity returns outperforming again.
There are cracks in the carry trade and doubts about growth rebounding sufficiently to matter as well. Are the angels of the markets, the FOMC, ECB, BOJ and others, fearful of a larger and longer soft-patch in growth or is it even worse as the markets diverge into liquidity trap thinking and inverted yield-curves predicting recessions? Is the 2020 hike projected by the FOMC dots ludicrous to the 25bps and more cuts priced? That set of questions dominates the fools-rush-in fear from bonds in March against the seasonal winning push for equities into April. The usual factors of fear from Brexit to US/China trade talks to elections everywhere are likely to scare even angels from the present risk-on course.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.