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The Weekly Track foxes-and-rabbits

- The Weekly Track – Foxes and Rabbits by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-foxes-and-rabbits/

Happy Easter. The cycle of life from death to rebirth hits markets in the next few weeks as the Spring fever will surely beget the usual palaver of selling in May and going away. Volatility is on the rise for the first time since January. The drivers of doubt have been well-discussed in 2017 - from Trump policy to the French election to FOMC to the ECB/BOJ to the role of Syria, North Korea and Russia/China relationships to the US and Europe. The rally up in risky assets has been truly hated while this last week’s pullback feels more technical than fearful – as the S&P500 closes just 3% from its record March 1 and remains up 4% on the year. Nevertheless, the signs of trouble from JPY gains to Gold over its 200-day along with the VIX all are flashing caution ahead. We are in a cycle like foxes and rabbits where the codependence of investors on central bankers, politicians and voters becomes a limiting system for risk-taking. Like the first problem set in beginning co
mputer science program, markets have tapered down position risks into the holiday markets and into the French Elections and so the natural ebb and flow to markets returns.