Report
EUR 21.76
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-lambs/
The last week was gentle – a return to passive investment processes – with lower volatility, higher equities, less fear, more greed. But we all know that March goes in like a lion and out like a lamb – just as winter turns to spring for the Northern Hemisphere and has the Christian Holiday Calendar shifts to Easter from Lent. This is a time for change and there are plenty to consider in the week ahead as we move from the short month-end for February to March and the likely shift up in US rates, the Italian elections, the new FOMC Chair Powell testimony, the ongoing focus on ECB policy tapering, UK Brexit talks and the financial cleansing in China – witness Anbang’s take-over last Friday by the Government. These are not easy events to trade or measure, they are wild and wooly, yet filled with opportunity and danger leaving traders that like being a predator more likely to enjoy the week ahead than those that flock like sheep to the simple uptrend in risk that came
back with surprising force Friday. Some of the rally back is based on the growing view that inflation fears that started with the January Jobs report with wage inflation and continued with CPI are overblown. One swallow a spring doesn’t make – so too – one or two data points don’t justify a run to exit for bonds. The fact that oil rose this week and has bounced like equities from the lows should put some doubt to this argument about tame inflation The weak link for the week ahead is in how the FOMC policy posture will be reinterpreted and how the bond market reacts as Chair Powell gets his first official grilling from Congress. The risk for 3.0% breakouts leading to a 3.4% test in short-order for 10Y and 4% in 30Y still attracts. The relationship of US rates to equities and FX along with commodities is undergoing a seachange and that means more volatility not less. The hope for last week to repeat into March maybe a stretch. Better to fear lions than hope for la
mbs.
The Weekly Track lambs
- The Weekly Track – Lambs? by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-lambs/
The last week was gentle – a return to passive investment processes – with lower volatility, higher equities, less fear, more greed. But we all know that March goes in like a lion and out like a lamb – just as winter turns to spring for the Northern Hemisphere and has the Christian Holiday Calendar shifts to Easter from Lent. This is a time for change and there are plenty to consider in the week ahead as we move from the short month-end for February to March and the likely shift up in US rates, the Italian elections, the new FOMC Chair Powell testimony, the ongoing focus on ECB policy tapering, UK Brexit talks and the financial cleansing in China – witness Anbang’s take-over last Friday by the Government. These are not easy events to trade or measure, they are wild and wooly, yet filled with opportunity and danger leaving traders that like being a predator more likely to enjoy the week ahead than those that flock like sheep to the simple uptrend in risk that came
back with surprising force Friday. Some of the rally back is based on the growing view that inflation fears that started with the January Jobs report with wage inflation and continued with CPI are overblown. One swallow a spring doesn’t make – so too – one or two data points don’t justify a run to exit for bonds. The fact that oil rose this week and has bounced like equities from the lows should put some doubt to this argument about tame inflation The weak link for the week ahead is in how the FOMC policy posture will be reinterpreted and how the bond market reacts as Chair Powell gets his first official grilling from Congress. The risk for 3.0% breakouts leading to a 3.4% test in short-order for 10Y and 4% in 30Y still attracts. The relationship of US rates to equities and FX along with commodities is undergoing a seachange and that means more volatility not less. The hope for last week to repeat into March maybe a stretch. Better to fear lions than hope for la
mbs.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.