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The Weekly Track march-on

- The Weekly Track – March On by Bob Savage
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The start of March is always in important test for markets. In 2018 March confirmed that February volatility and selling was a bottom. For 2019 many fear the opposite. The calendar of events ahead sets the big picture tone for markets now as many see less obvious value plays in equities or bonds. Less hawkish central bankers aren’t sufficient to cap rates anymore as the US and UK markets showed this week. The risk-on mood has limits as well with many now wanting confirmation from the real economy as green shoots need to lead to real growth. The drive of geopolitical concerns over economic ones continued last week with focus on US/China trade deal hopes, UK political shifts driving risks for a hard-Brexit down and opening up another referendum or delay along with a new election. India/Pakistan and their skirmish over the Kashmir scared many but remained contained with no nuclear fears. The US/North Korea summit ended early but there were some deals – as the US/Sout
h Korea agreed to end joint military exercises. All of these stories matter as they were supportive for risk. The tail-risks of December have been unwound again. The outlook for March rests on those risks remaining in check along with a few new fears – like EU elections or US internal politics. Overall, the seasonal push for March will be competing with these fears.