EUR 21.16 For Business Accounts Only

The Weekly Track peaks

- The Weekly Track - Peaks by Bob Savage
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-peaks/

Markets are repricing for the best of times or maybe they just want to wait out the heat and so play for carry and sell volatility on the hope that nothing new happens. It’s summer, so thoughtful analysis done on the beach matters more than reaction to tweets and ugly headlines. This is a market that maybe wise to vacation in the mountains instead as the next peak maybe hidden in the clouds. The risk-on and risk-off roller coaster of the last 2 weeks appears to be stalling out and the ride maybe over as the vacation mode for markets hits volumes and leaves trading desks thinly staffed with decision makers away. This makes an opportunity to those seeking some hedging protection from larger swings into Autumn when the clash of politics and economics will relentlessly return. The peak of earnings performance in 1Q may prove modest to 2Q and this is the focus for the weeks ahead in US shares. As for economics, with CPI out of the way, the FOMC reaction function to growth
data will be in play as FOMC Chair Powell testifies to Congress. As for the Trump negotiation tactics on trade and NATO – many still expect a deal rather than a dump for the world order. All of this puts the S&P500 back in play with the 2800 top breaking out opening tests for 2882 again. Peaks that prove to be mere mountains change moods. Stocks rebounding puts us all back to watching the perception of central bankers about financial conditions and the role of animal spirits in driving the economy. How we handle another week of Trump/Putin, China/EU and G20 Finance Ministers will likely be viewed in this lens with a healthy dose of doubt.