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EUR 21.76
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http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-perspectives/
It’s Easter and there are rabbits everywhere. The problem for markets post this holiday will be one of perspective. For the last 10 years we have been trained to buy the dip. The question is whether the world has changed like the weather and season, from cold Winter full of deflationary fear to warm Spring full of inflationary fervor. The difference is one of perspective. Markets work because you have a diversity of views averaged. Bulls battle bears, doves battle hawks – but perhaps we should be thinking ducks rather than rabbits. Buying the dip worked when central banks had our back and worried about financial stability. What we learned last week is that the ECB is divided but wants to taper and then hike in 2019, that the US FOMC wants to hike 4 times but would do 3 if it has to while the BOJ is stuck wishing it had more tools. The PBOC has tightened but not much and the leverage of the economy helps it grow – as the weekend PMI reports suggest. This will be t
he template for the start of April – growth – with the strongest GDP winning. The next big comparison for markets is in the middle of the month with the IMF Washington meetings and their outlook update. The benchmark for this was the January WEO, which was full of bright prospects and a robust market outlook. Things have changed and perspectives are different but the underlying economic trends and fundamentals maybe the same. So it goes for how the market looks at the world – with less than rose-colored glasses.
The Weekly Track perspectives
- The Weekly Track - Perspectives by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-perspectives/
It’s Easter and there are rabbits everywhere. The problem for markets post this holiday will be one of perspective. For the last 10 years we have been trained to buy the dip. The question is whether the world has changed like the weather and season, from cold Winter full of deflationary fear to warm Spring full of inflationary fervor. The difference is one of perspective. Markets work because you have a diversity of views averaged. Bulls battle bears, doves battle hawks – but perhaps we should be thinking ducks rather than rabbits. Buying the dip worked when central banks had our back and worried about financial stability. What we learned last week is that the ECB is divided but wants to taper and then hike in 2019, that the US FOMC wants to hike 4 times but would do 3 if it has to while the BOJ is stuck wishing it had more tools. The PBOC has tightened but not much and the leverage of the economy helps it grow – as the weekend PMI reports suggest. This will be t
he template for the start of April – growth – with the strongest GDP winning. The next big comparison for markets is in the middle of the month with the IMF Washington meetings and their outlook update. The benchmark for this was the January WEO, which was full of bright prospects and a robust market outlook. Things have changed and perspectives are different but the underlying economic trends and fundamentals maybe the same. So it goes for how the market looks at the world – with less than rose-colored glasses.
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Robert Savage
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