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http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-play-offs/
Play-offs and Pay-offs – the difference is just one letter “L†which stands for losing. How investors stand up to losses when they believe in a bigger trend is what separates those that trade from those that invest as many see 2017 as a longer season than that of just football or any other sport. Sport remain the peaceful expression of warlike competition providing a break from the worldwide concerns of larger conflict and uncertainty, as there are only winners and losers in Sport but not so clearly in markets. The play-offs for the NFL are almost finished and so we are about to move to the championship stage but not quite yet. What seems interesting is how predictable the winners have been so far. So too, for markets last week where the trend reversals of the November 8th election stalled but didn’t end, something that the American Football play-offs have managed to do – with last year’s Superbowl winners not making it nor their opponents.
A new set of players and coaches lift the game just like the new 2017 concerns and worries change the easy money trading from 2016. The world is watching for Trump policy changes and its speed to affect the real economy. The markets are waiting for inflation and rates to move even higher. The play-off between rates and equities and the “great rotation†continues to beckon with the focus on revenues and earnings even more intense given the wild expectations for success in the year ahead.
The markets traded the first full week with a mind towards divergence – whether that was the GBP against the economic data vs. hard Brexit fears, the Emerging Market equities against the USD rally or the risks for revenue disappointments in 4Q earnings against the buying of technology. Markets are in play-off mode – trying to find winners and losers like the sport but not quite sure if central bankers are referees or coaches, or how politics play out in the background. The week ahead is likely to deliver more surprises and more volatility.
The Weekly Track play-offs
- The Weekly Track - Play-offs by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-play-offs/
Play-offs and Pay-offs – the difference is just one letter “L†which stands for losing. How investors stand up to losses when they believe in a bigger trend is what separates those that trade from those that invest as many see 2017 as a longer season than that of just football or any other sport. Sport remain the peaceful expression of warlike competition providing a break from the worldwide concerns of larger conflict and uncertainty, as there are only winners and losers in Sport but not so clearly in markets. The play-offs for the NFL are almost finished and so we are about to move to the championship stage but not quite yet. What seems interesting is how predictable the winners have been so far. So too, for markets last week where the trend reversals of the November 8th election stalled but didn’t end, something that the American Football play-offs have managed to do – with last year’s Superbowl winners not making it nor their opponents.
A new set of players and coaches lift the game just like the new 2017 concerns and worries change the easy money trading from 2016. The world is watching for Trump policy changes and its speed to affect the real economy. The markets are waiting for inflation and rates to move even higher. The play-off between rates and equities and the “great rotation†continues to beckon with the focus on revenues and earnings even more intense given the wild expectations for success in the year ahead.
The markets traded the first full week with a mind towards divergence – whether that was the GBP against the economic data vs. hard Brexit fears, the Emerging Market equities against the USD rally or the risks for revenue disappointments in 4Q earnings against the buying of technology. Markets are in play-off mode – trying to find winners and losers like the sport but not quite sure if central bankers are referees or coaches, or how politics play out in the background. The week ahead is likely to deliver more surprises and more volatility.
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Robert Savage
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