Report
EUR 21.76
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-shore-breaks/
In surfing, a shore break is hard to enjoy as the waves break close to the beach thanks to the steepness of the beach to ocean. You can only enjoy them when there is sand and no rocks or other obstacles in the way. This maybe the right analogy to consider when trying to trade markets into next week as rate moves dominated the volatility in markets sparking moves in FX and in commodities but not equities. Surfing asset class reactions to rates breaking on the curves matters to everyone, but how those curves look under the surface matters just as much as the velocity of the moves. The focus last week was on the call of the bear market for US bonds, the fear that China/US relations are leading to an end of the US bond buying there and the shift up in rate hike expectations around the world in a catch-up to the US with the Bank of Canada next week being next in line, but the ECB minutes leading the shift from easy money to harder currency as the EUR rallies and the USD falls.
The USD had a bad week and much of it started with fears that the Chinese are ready to skip buying US assets in 2018. The chart of CNY to US bonds from Morgan Stanley highlights the counter-cyclical reasoning.
>From an investor perspective, many see the Bill Gross call for a bond bear market as obvious but overdone, as the expectation is for 3% 10Y bond yields not 4-5% and that the timing of such a move will be gradual like that of the FOMC rate hikes. Further, many see US bonds are still holding some value given the tame rates of PPI/CPI in comparison to the rest of the world. Rate break outs have to be seen in the context of the overall yield curve to have meaning beyond the technical picture.
What Happened over the Weekend? So far it’s a busy long weekend for US news with a false alarm for a missile attack in Hawaii starting panic, more US flu talk and focus as 2018 season appears as bad as 2009 swine flu, with more headlines about DACA, immigration issues and the budget deals needed to avoid a Friday government shutdown. Peru gets hit with a 7.3 earthquake. Czech first round goes to President Zeman (the pro-Russia leader) with 38.6% while Drahos gets 26.6% - but 4 of the 6 losers now support him ( and they got 32.5% of the vote). The SPD seems to be looking for tweaks to the Merkel deal ahead of the party vote on it.
The Weekly Track shore-breaks
- The Weekly Track – Shore breaks by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-weekly-track-shore-breaks/
In surfing, a shore break is hard to enjoy as the waves break close to the beach thanks to the steepness of the beach to ocean. You can only enjoy them when there is sand and no rocks or other obstacles in the way. This maybe the right analogy to consider when trying to trade markets into next week as rate moves dominated the volatility in markets sparking moves in FX and in commodities but not equities. Surfing asset class reactions to rates breaking on the curves matters to everyone, but how those curves look under the surface matters just as much as the velocity of the moves. The focus last week was on the call of the bear market for US bonds, the fear that China/US relations are leading to an end of the US bond buying there and the shift up in rate hike expectations around the world in a catch-up to the US with the Bank of Canada next week being next in line, but the ECB minutes leading the shift from easy money to harder currency as the EUR rallies and the USD falls.
The USD had a bad week and much of it started with fears that the Chinese are ready to skip buying US assets in 2018. The chart of CNY to US bonds from Morgan Stanley highlights the counter-cyclical reasoning.
>From an investor perspective, many see the Bill Gross call for a bond bear market as obvious but overdone, as the expectation is for 3% 10Y bond yields not 4-5% and that the timing of such a move will be gradual like that of the FOMC rate hikes. Further, many see US bonds are still holding some value given the tame rates of PPI/CPI in comparison to the rest of the world. Rate break outs have to be seen in the context of the overall yield curve to have meaning beyond the technical picture.
What Happened over the Weekend? So far it’s a busy long weekend for US news with a false alarm for a missile attack in Hawaii starting panic, more US flu talk and focus as 2018 season appears as bad as 2009 swine flu, with more headlines about DACA, immigration issues and the budget deals needed to avoid a Friday government shutdown. Peru gets hit with a 7.3 earthquake. Czech first round goes to President Zeman (the pro-Russia leader) with 38.6% while Drahos gets 26.6% - but 4 of the 6 losers now support him ( and they got 32.5% of the vote). The SPD seems to be looking for tweaks to the Merkel deal ahead of the party vote on it.
Provider
Track
TRACK.COM is an independent platform for investment research and market ideas. TRACK.COM research and analysis is used daily by hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, central banks and institutional asset managers to make investment decisions. These clients view Track.com as a trusted partner – our real-time research is thoughtful, well organized and right on target.
Robert Savage
Other Reports from Track
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.