EUR 23.44 For Business Accounts Only

The Weekly Track trick-or-treat-2

- The Weekly Track – Trick or Treat? by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-weekly-track-trick-or-treat-2/

The US Election looms even larger post the Friday FBI letter to Congress regarding further investigation of Clinton emails. The effect on the polls will be the key for many but some investors already voted by selling off MXN and equities after a long week of earnings. The trick for trading markets in 2016 has revolved around central bank policy and next week brings more than just a few holidays – Halloween, All Saints Day and El Dia Del Muerte – it also brings a clock shift in Europe, more decisions from the BOJ, RBA, BOE, FOMC – and it brings the treat of more economic data from global PMIs to US employment reports. Treating money well remains the business of money managers and their tricks in chasing “safe” yields got more complicated with US bond yields running higher along with UK Gilts, German Bunds and Japanese Bonds. Once again, the move up in US rates has been spurred by what was said abroad more than at home making the focus on central banks even more
crucial. The delivery of their easy money, the speed of it and their ability to buy evermore government bonds drives the markets more than ever. Their trick of distorting asset prices maybe worn like a tattered costume fooling no one about their wizardry over the real economy. The most important risks for next week are about the US political risks for surprise in the Clinton / Trump polls, further rate moves higher in Europe and the rest of the world, and in the USD which is on the cusp of a larger breakout to 107 JPY, 1.07 EUR and in Emerging Markets where the outflows from bonds and equities could accelerate. The key is how much changes on the US map in the week ahead.