Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: Fruquintinib’s commercial prospects are a key contributor to HUTCHMED’s path to profitability, which is supported by the growing traction and market share capture of its China oncology products, additional potential approvals and launches (by partner Takeda) of fruquintinib in international markets, and a solid balance sheet. Fruquintinib’s potential approval in a second indication in China (2L gastric cancer) as well as tiered royalties on annual net sales in Takeda’s markets (undisclosed but assumed to start from mid-teens) should drive significant future revenues. Nearer-term, the revenues from HUTCHMED’s three marketed oncology products in China, coupled with partial recognition ($280m) of the Takeda licence upfront contribute to FY23 revenue guidance of $450-550m. FY23 results will report on February 28. Our last published valuation is $5.74bn/ £4.78bn/ HK$44.75bn, or $32.95/ADS and 549p/HK$51.40 per share.
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